Long-term demographic trends of near threatened coastal dolphins living
amidst urbanisation and climate change.
Abstract
Understanding population demography of threatened species and how they
vary in relation to natural and anthropogenic stressors is essential for
effective conservation. We used a long-term photographic
capture-recapture dataset (1993 – 2020) of Indo-Pacific bottlenose
dolphins (Tursiops aduncus) in the highly urbanised Adelaide Dolphin
Sanctuary (ADS), South Australia, to estimate key demographic parameters
and their variability over time. These parameters were analysed in
relation to environmental variables used as indicators of local and
large-scale climatic events. Our findings indicate that apparent
survival was high (0.98-0.99) and did not vary seasonally. Estimates of
abundance were not directly related to environmental variables but were
linked to seasonal temporary emigration. Abundance peaked in summer with
an average of 85.37 dolphins (SD = 30.23), and was lowest in winter,
with 68.57 (SD = 24.70) individuals. Site fidelity at the population
level was low, but lagged identification rates revealed a resident
population of approximately 28 individuals. Trend analysis suggests high
levels of dolphin abundance and persistence of the population over
decades despite significant urbanisation, but numbers have declined in
recent years. Further research is needed to understand the cumulative
impacts leading to this population decline and to assess its future
viability under different management scenarios. Conservation strategies
aimed at increasing reproductive rates and promoting connectivity to
adjacent waters are likely to be more effective in reversing population
declines.