The role of climate and species interactions in determining the
distribution of two elevationally segregated species of small mammals
through time
Abstract
The relative importance of abiotic and biotic factors in determining
species distributions has long been of interest to ecologists but is
often difficult to assess due to the lack of spatially and temporally
robust occurrence records. Furthermore, locating places where
potentially highly competitive species co-occur may be challenging but
would provide critical knowledge into the effects of competition on
species ranges. We built species distribution models for two closely
related species of small mammals (Neotoma) that are largely parapatric
along mountainsides throughout the Great Basin Desert using extensive
modern occurrence records. We hindcasted these models to the
mid-Holocene to compare the response of each species to dramatic
climatic change and used paleontological records to validate our models.
Model results showed species co-occurrence at mid-elevations along
select mountain ranges in this region. We confirmed our model results
with fine-scale field surveys in a single mountain range containing one
of the most extensive survey datasets across an elevational gradient in
the Great Basin. We found close alignment of both species’ realized
distributions to their respective abiotic species distribution model
predictions, despite the presence of the congener, indicating that
climate may be more influential than competition in shaping distribution
at the scale of a single mountain range. Our models also predict
differential species responses to historic climate change, leading to
reduced probability of species interactions during warmer and dryer
climatic conditions. Our results emphasize the utility of examining
species distributions with regards to both abiotic variables and species
interactions and at various spatial scales to make inferences about the
mechanisms underlying distributional limits.