Biopsychosocial Predictors of Preterm and Spontaneous Preterm Birth: A
Machine Learning Analysis of the All Our Families Cohort
Abstract
Objective The primary objective of this study was to develop
and evaluate a machine learning (ML) model for predicting preterm birth
(PTB) and spontaneous preterm birth (SPTB) using biopsychosocial data.
Design Secondary analysis of a cohort data. Sample
Data from a prospective longitudinal pregnancy cohort, All Our Families,
were used in the current study. Pregnant individuals prior to 25 weeks
gestation with a medically low-risk pregnancy were eligible for
recruitment. Methods ML classification models were trained to
predict both SPTB and PTB using a total of 52 input features.
Main Outcome Measures Machine learning model accuracy and the
features selected. Results Moderate accuracies were achieved by
the PTB (ROC-AUC = 0.62±0.03) and SPTB models (ROC-AUC = 0.57±0.05). For
PTB, the most informative variables were a diagnosis of hypertensive
disorder of pregnancy (HDP), feelings towards pregnancy, use of
fertility treatment, satisfaction with social support, and exercise. For
SPTB, the top predictive factors were use of fertility treatment,
feelings towards pregnancy, diagnosis of HDP, household income, and
satisfaction with social support. Conclusions The current study
sets the stage for further research to use ML models to predict
perinatal outcomes and examine novel and potentially modifiable
biopsychosocial factors contributing to the overall risk of PTB.