：Land use/cover change (LUCC) can either enhance areal carbon reserve capacity or exacerbate carbon emission issues, comprehending the impact of LUCC on regional carbon reserve variation holds great significance for socio-economic sustainable development. This study focuses on Liaoning Province, leveraging land use remote sensing data from three periods from 2000 to 2020, natural environmental data and socioeconomic data in conjunction with the Integrated Valuation of Environmental Services and Trade-offs (InVEST) model and Patch-generating land use simulation (PLUS) models. It analyzes the interactive relationship between LUCC and carbon reserves in Liaoning Province between 2000 and 2020 and forecasts the trajectory of carbon reserve changes in Liaoning Province under various scenarios: business as usual, urban development, cropland protection and ecological protection. The findings indicate that: (1) Over the study period, Liaoning Province experienced significant LUCC characterized primarily by the transformation of farmland to built-up land. Carbon reserves initially declined and later increased due to LUCC changes, resulting in a cumulative increase of 30.52Tg C. (2) Across the four simulation scenarios, under the urban development scenario, carbon reserves decreased by 34.56Tg C tons, representing a 2.45% decrease compared to 2020. Conversely, under the business as usual, cultivated land protection and ecological protection scenarios, carbon reserves displayed a growing tendency, reaching 1449.35Tg C, 1450.39Tg C, and 1471.80Tg C, respectively. In light of these findings, Liaoning Province may regard laying down and strictly executing spatial policies for ecological protection in future land projecting.

Land use/cover change (LUCC) can either enhance areal carbon reserve capacity or exacerbate carbon emission issues, comprehending the impact of LUCC on regional carbon reserve variation holds great significance for socio-economic sustainable development. This study focuses on Liaoning Province, leveraging land use remote sensing data from three periods from 2000 to 2020, natural environmental data and socioeconomic data in conjunction with the Integrated Valuation of Environmental Services and Trade-offs (InVEST) model and Patch-generating land use simulation (PLUS) models. It analyzes the interactive relationship between LUCC and carbon reserves in Liaoning Province between 2000 and 2020 and forecasts the trajectory of carbon reserve changes in Liaoning Province under various scenarios: business as usual, urban development, cropland protection and ecological protection. The findings indicate that: (1) Over the study period, Liaoning Province experienced significant LUCC characterized primarily by the transformation of farmland to built-up land. Carbon reserves initially declined and later increased due to LUCC changes, resulting in a cumulative increase of 30.52Tg C. (2) Across the four simulation scenarios, under the urban development scenario, carbon reserves decreased by 34.56Tg C tons, representing a 2.45% decrease compared to 2020. Conversely, under the business as usual, cultivated land protection and ecological protection scenarios, carbon reserves displayed a growing tendency, reaching 1449.35Tg C, 1450.39Tg C, and 1471.80Tg C, respectively. In light of these findings, Liaoning Province may regard laying down and strictly executing spatial policies for ecological protection in future land projecting.