Early Prediction of CPAP Failure in Very Preterm Neonates Utilizing
Machine Learning
Abstract
Background: Preterm neonates with respiratory distress syndrome
(RDS) who fail continuous positive airway pressure (CPAP) ventilation
have higher risks for increased morbidity and mortality.
Objective: To assess if machine learning, on multicenter data,
may predict CPAP failure in preterm infants with RDS and allow proactive
intervention to minimize CPAP failure burden and improve clinical
outcomes. Methods: This study was conducted using the Oracle
EHR Real-World Data (OERWD) database including preterm NICU admits
between 2002-2023. CPAP failure was defined as the need for invasive
mechanical ventilation within 72 hours of life. Demographics, admit
vital signs, and laboratory values were retrieved to develop an
explainable machine learning model using extreme gradient boosting
(XGBoost). Results: 24,127 neonates from 27 NICUs qualified for
the study with CPAP failure rate of 64.1%. FiO2 was the strongest
predictor of CPAP failure followed by systolic blood pressure,
temperature, birthweight, PaO2, oxygen saturation, heart rate, and
gestational age followed in importance. Resulting XGBoost model attained
an area under the receiver operator characteristic curve of 0.91 (95%
CI: 0.90, 0.92) and an F-1 score of 0.87. Conclusions: CPAP
failure can be predicted with high accuracy at admission to the NICU
creating opportunities for early intervention and prevention of RDS
related complications.