Global climate change exerts great effort for plants distributions. However the response of P. mira, one of the most important species for ecological protection in the southeast of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, to climate change remains unclear. To explore the ecological factors on the distribution of P. mira in context of global climate change, the MaxENT model is used to predict the suitable habitats for P. mira. Our study indicated that the distribution of P. mira is primarily influenced by temperature rather than precipitation, warming can facilitate the growth of P. mira. When the temperature seasonality (bio4) ranges from 134 to 576 and the mean temperature of coldest quarter (bio11) ranges from -2.6°C to 2.7°C, it is most conducive to the growth of P. mira. Among the four climate scenarios, the optimal habitat for P. mira is predominantly concentrated in river valley areas and is expected to expand into higher altitude regions, particularly in the north and southeast. SSP245 and SSP370 climate pathways are conducive to the growth and spatial expansion of P. mira. Our findings highlight the significant impact of temperature not precipitation on the distribution of P. mira, and this insight is crucial for the stability and conservation of this ecologically significant plant species.