3.6 Core Distributional Shifts
Throughout history, the centroid of T. sinense has exhibited notable fluctuations (Fig. 7). From the last interglacial period to the last glacial maximum, the center of mass shifted southwest by 49,638 m. Subsequently, from the last glacial period to the mid-Holocene, the centroid moved northeast by 36,430 m. Continuing into the present era, the center of mass further migrated northeast by 18,472.6 m (Table 6).
Projection analysis indicates a northward shift in the centroid of the suitable area for T. sinense by 2050 and 2070, under future climate change scenarios (Fig. 7). With increasing greenhouse gas emissions, the spatial distribution of potentially suitable areas undergoes more pronounced alterations over greater distances. Notably, the migration distance of T. sinense in the 2070s surpasses that of the 2050s under low and medium emission concentrations, except for the center of the 2050s-SSPs8.5. The most extensive migration distance occurs under the SSPs7.0-2070s climate scenario.