Effect of climate change and increased CO2 concentration on grassland
NEP in Gansu, China
Abstract
Abstract: Climate change and elevated CO2 concentration have
significantly influenced on the Spatiotemporal distribution of global
and regional grassland carbon storage. To detect the effects of present
and future climate scenarios on spatiotemporal distribution of NEP and
analysis the main factors of grassland NEP, this study used the CENTURY
model after parameter calibration to estimate the values of net
ecosystem production (NEP) from 2000 to 2014. The one-way ANOVA and
error analysis were used to verify the model. The SSP126, SSP245 and
SSP585 as the future climate scenarios also be used to simulate the
spatiotemporal change of the NEP from 2015 to 2100. The results show
that there was a good agreement between the observed and predicted NEP;
The inter-annual variation of NEP decreased year by year under different
scenarios. The northwest and eastern of Gansu province are sensitive
areas to NEP spatial change. Precipitation, longitude and temperature
were significantly positively correlated with NEP, which is
significantly negatively correlated with temperature, but weakly
correlated with precipitation. In addition, increased CO2 concentration
was positively correlated with NEP. The annual average changes of
grassland NEP in Gansu under the SSP126, SSP245 and SSP585 climate
scenarios are 595.95 gC·m-2·a-1、604.53 gC·m-2·a-1 and 679.17
gC·m-2·a-1, respectively. During 2019-2048, grassland NEP decreased at a
rate of -0.69 gC·m-2·a-1 (P<0.01) in the SSP126 climate
scenario, no significant changes in the SSP245 climate scenario at a
rate of -0.2 gC·m-2·a-1, and increased significantly at a rate of 1.36
gC·m-2·a-1 (P<0.01) in the SSP585 climate scenario. On average,
grassland in Gansu is a carbon sink under different[ climate
scenarios, and the potential carbon sequestration capacity of grassland
will gradually increase under future climate change.