Figure 2 | Effect of standardised values of habitat
suitability (panels a, c, e, g, and i) and recorder effort (b, d, f, h,
and j) on the presence of JTM for GBIF data (a and b), iNaturalist (c
and d), Flickr (e and f), and Instagram (g and h). 0 on the y axis
refers to a pseudoabsence, 1 refers to presence of JTM. Lines predicted
from GLMMs with year as random effect, however, due to a low variance
explained by year (mean standard deviation = 0.020), only the average
effect across years was plotted per panel. Grey area denotes 95%
confidence interval.
Even though the geographic background for the HSMs did not include the
species’ entire range, this did not affect our results, since all
post-2009 JTM records are found within climate conditions that is
analogous to the historical range (Figure S5). GBIF-calculated suitable
habitat across the study region was relatively consistent between years,
with notable exceptions in the UK, Republic of Ireland, Italy, and
Denmark (Figure 2 and S6). The mean (± standard deviation) AUC of HSMs
was 0.743 (± 0.057) and mean Boyce Index was 0.367 (± 0.246).