3.1 Provenance and site differentiation in tree survival
After 17 months of growth, we had on average 79% survival from the original planting, however, losses were somewhat asymmetric across species. The total explained variance from general linear models on survival ranged from R 2 = 0.12 to 0.69 (mean 0.30) across species. 10/16 species showed significant effects of provenance and/or site on survival, and six showed no effect (Figure 3a, Table 1, Figure S3). In four species, A. fitzalanii , C. ramiflorus, G. acutifolia, and M. elleryana , site alone significantly affected survival. In two species (S. luehmannii , and N. dealbata ) provenance alone affected survival: the lowland provenance had a higher survival rate than the upland provenance irrespective of site for each species. For one species (H. novo-guineensis ), survival was impacted by both provenance and site with no interaction effect (Figure S3). For three species (C. hypospodia , E. grandis , and T. ciliata ) there were significant provenance × site effects on survival. In C. hypospodia the lowland provenance had higher mean survival at all sites but had greater provenance differentiation at Cow Bay compared to other sites. For E. grandis , survival was slightly greater for the upland provenance compared to the lowland provenance when grown at the Cow Bay and Thiaki sites, but the opposite was observed when grown at the DRO site. For T. ciliata provenance differentiation was only significant at the DRO site, where the lowland provenance had a higher probability of survival.