Jianlong Chen

and 2 more

The instability of electrical trading prices presents considerable challenges for forecasting and allocating resources in smart grid systems. This paper proposes an electrical price forecasting approach based on hybrid stacking ensemble learning methods. Although weather conditions significantly impact the distribution of electrical loads and prices, different weatherrelated historical data, including temperature and humidity, would be utilized as input features for the proposed hybrid stacking model based on different Artificial Intelligence (AI) methods. Different from the conventional load forecasting method, the proposed hybrid stacking method includes multiple AI models including XGBoost, CatBoost, Neural Oblivious Decision Ensemble (NODE), Light Gradient-Boosting Machine (LightGBM), Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU), and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), with Lasso regression acting as the meta-learner. Considering distributed weather data inputs and the stacking nature of the proposed method, the model seeks to improve forecasting accuracy and more closely represent actual electrical load and price situations. The performance of the hybrid stacking model was experimented with realistic datasets and evaluated by different time series forecasting metrics, including Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). Comparisons with single AI models show that the proposed hybrid stacking method improves the performance of electrical load and price forecasting and could be beneficial to the operation and allocation of smart grid systems.

Wei Xu

and 2 more

Artificial Intelligence, specifically, Boost-base methods, has successfully revolutionized the area of stock price forecasting in recent years. This article integrates the idea of the hybrid stacking ensemble learning to forecast the trend of stocks. In the utilized Google stock price dataset, the market features "Open," "High", "Low," and "Volume" are utilized as input variables for a proposed hybrid stacking model in line with various Artificial Intelligence (AI) techniques. Unlike traditional stock price forecasting methods, this hybrid stacking approach incorporates multiple AI models, including XGBoost, CatBoost, and Light Gradient-Boosting Machine (LightGBM), with Lasso regression serving as the meta-learner. By employing the intrinsic pattern hidden in the real-world stock market and the inherent stacking mode of the proposed methodology, the hybrid algorithm in this paper endeavors to enhance the prediction capability and capture the real-world operation mode in financial market. By leveraging distributed stock price data inputs and the stacking methodology, the model aims to enhance forecasting accuracy and better reflect actual stock market conditions. The multistate algorithm outperformed on the widely-employed Google datasets with several typical prediction evaluation criteria, including some classical format. The benchmark experiments on various baseline models demonstrate the effectiveness and the advantages of the developed multi-stage algorithm and enjoy the significant improvement on the Google standard market competition.