Effectiveness of South Africa’s network of protected areas: Unassessed
vascular plants predicted to be threatened using deep neural networks
are all located in protected areas
Abstract
Globally, biodiversity is at risk of extinction, and megadiverse
countries become key targets for conservation. South Africa, the only
country hosting three biodiversity hotspots, harbours tremendous
diversity of at-risk species deserving to be protected. However, the
lengthy risk assessment process and the lack of required data to
complete assessments is a serious limitation to conservation since
several species may slide into extinction while awaiting risk
assessment. Here, we employed deep neural network model integrating
species climatic and geographic features to predict the conservation
status of 116 unassessed plant species. Our analysis involved in total
1072 plant species and 112 066 occurrence points. The best-performing
model exhibits high accuracy, reaching up to 83.6% at the binary
classification and 56.8% at the detailed classification. Our
best-performing model predicts that 32% and 8% of Data Deficient and
Not-Evaluated species are likely threatened, respectively, amounting to
a proportion of 24.1% of unassessed species facing a risk of
extinction. Interestingly, all unassessed species predicted to be
threatened are in protected areas, revealing the effectiveness of the
South Africa’s network of protected areas in conservation, although
these likely threatened species are more abundant outside protected
areas. Considering the limitation in assessing only species with
available data, there remains a possibility of a higher proportion of
unassessed species being imperiled.