The interaction between the Linnean and Darwinian shortfalls affects our
understanding of the evolutionary dynamics driving diversity patterns of
New World coralsnakes
Abstract
In this study, we sought to understand how the Linnean shortfall (i.e.,
the lack of knowledge about species taxonomy) interacts with the
Darwinian shortfall (i.e., the lack of knowledge about phylogenetic
relationships among species), potentially jeopardizing geographical
patterns in estimates of speciation rates, using New World coralsnakes
as a case study. For this purpose, we created an index of taxonomic
uncertainty that measures the likelihood of current species being split
after undergoing future taxonomic revisions. Next, we conducted
simulations in which branches of species with high taxonomic uncertainty
are split in the phylogenetic trees to generate new hypothetical species
along their geographic ranges. We found that a high number of coralsnake
species display substantial taxonomic uncertainty, positively correlated
with the latitude of the species’ geographical range centroid. The
estimated speciation rates based on currently available data have a weak
relationship with latitude. However, after incorporating taxonomic
uncertainty into the phylogeny, we detect a higher positive correlation
between speciation rate and latitude. This shift demonstrates that
taxonomic uncertainty can undermine empirical evaluation of the
geographical pattern estimates in speciation rates, revealing an
interaction between the latitudinal taxonomic gradient and the
latitudinal diversity gradient. Given that taxonomic changes can alter
the number of species recognized as valid over time, our study
highlights the need to incorporate taxonomic uncertainty into
macroecological and macroevolutionary studies, enhancing the robustness
of patterns inferred from these data.