Abstract
Aim: The range and biomass distribution of marine fish species offer
insights into their underlying niches. Quantitative data are rare
compared to occurrences and remain underused in species distribution
models (SDMs) to explore patterns of realized niches– the actual space
occupied by a species shaped by abiotic and biotic factors. Local
densities drive differences in species contributions to ecological
processes and ecosystem function rather than through presence alone,
thus if a species growth rate is strongly controlled by
macro-environmental conditions, then predicting geographical abundance
or densities should be possible. Location: Baltic Sea Methods: We
collated twenty years of standardized scientific bottom trawl surveys to
fit an ensemble of SDMs to biomass (kg km-2) of four
dominant demersal species (Common dab, European flounder, European
plaice, Atlantic cod) within seasonal (winter and autumn) and decadal
(2001-2010; 2011-2020) time windows. Covariates were represented with
high-resolution oceanographic and habitat variables. Final prediction
maps for each species were produced by weighted ensemble averages.
Results: This work shows four distinct cases of spatiotemporal patterns.
1) Relative stasis in dab that is linked to the macro-environmental
salinity gradient in the western Baltic Sea. 2) Flounder biomass showed
spatial seasonality alongside increasing trends in the western Baltic
Sea and declines in Bornholm Basin deeps. 3) Plaice have broadly
increased in biomass density throughout the western Baltic Sea towards
present, associated with bottom salinity and temperature. 4) Both
juvenile and adult cod (≥35 cm) declined in biomass and distribution,
greatest among juvenile cod in the Gdańsk deeps and for adult cod in
Bornholm Basin by 2011-2020. Main Conclusions: This study maps biomass
of the dominant Baltic Sea demersal fish, including seasonally-explicit
patterns available from survey data. The biogeographic patterns
described here expand beyond common occurrence data and suitability
maps, which rarely discriminate between areas of high and low abundance.