Locating boundaries between locked and creeping regions at Nankai and
Cascadia subduction zones
Abstract
Interseismic coupling maps and, especially, estimates of the location of
the fully coupled (locked) zone relative to the trench, coastline, and
slow slip events are crucial for determining megathrust earthquake
hazard at subduction zones. We present a physically motivated
interseismic coupling inversion that explicitly incorporates locked
zones with boundaries bordering an updip transition zone creeping at
constant stress and a downdip transition zone with creep rate
distributions consistent with updip propagation of the creep front into
the locked zone. We show that the locked zone at Cascadia is west of the
coastline and 10 km updip of the slow slip zone along much of the
margin, widest (25-125 km, extending to ~22 km depth) in
northern Cascadia, narrowest (0-70 km) in central Cascadia, with moment
accumulation rate equivalent to a Mw 8.78 and Mw 8.89 earthquake for
300- and 500-year earthquake cycles. We find a steep gradient in creep
immediately below the locked zone, indicative of propagating creep,
along the entire margin. At Nankai, we find three distinct zones of
locking (offshore Shikoku, offshore southeast Kii peninsula, and
offshore Shima peninsula) with a total moment accumulation rate
equivalent to a Mw 8.73 earthquake for a 150-year earthquake cycle. The
bottom of the locked zone is nearly under the coastline for all three
locked regions at Nankai and is positioned 0-5 km updip of the the slow
slip zone. In contrast with Cascadia, creep rate gradients below the
locked zone at Nankai are generally gradual, consistent with stationary
locking.