The role of indirect interspecific effects in the stochastic dynamics of
a simple trophic system
Abstract
Understanding indirect interspecific effects (IIEs) on population
dynamics is key for predicting community dynamics. Yet, empirically
teasing apart IIEs from other interactions and population drivers is
data-demanding. We used stochastic population models parameterized with
long-term vital rate time series to simulate population trajectories and
examine IIEs in a high-arctic vertebrate trophic chain: Svalbard
reindeer, its scavenger (Arctic fox), and a migratory fox prey (barnacle
goose). Reindeer carcass supply shaped fox abundance fluctuations,
subsequently affecting goose fluctuations. Yet reindeer and goose
population growth rates were only weakly correlated, probably due to
stochasticity, density dependence and life history traits. However, by
isolating the effects of individual processes within our simulation
model, we demonstrate the presence of strong IIEs on goose population
fluctuations and extinction probability. Thus, we highlight the
long-term impact of species interactions, including IIEs, on species
coexistence and communities, beyond immediate effects and short-term
fluctuations.