Landsat greening trends in alpine ecosystems are inflated by
multidecadal increases in summer observations
Abstract
Remote sensing is an invaluable tool for tracking decadal-scale changes
in vegetation greenness in response to climate and land use changes.
While the Landsat archive has been widely used to explore these trends
and their spatial and temporal complexity, its inconsistent sampling
frequency over time and space raises concerns about its ability to
provide reliable estimates of annual vegetation indices such as the
annual maximum NDVI, commonly used as a proxy of plant productivity.
Here we demonstrate for seasonally snow-covered ecosystems, that
greening trends derived from annual maximum NDVI can be significantly
overestimated because the number of available Landsat observations
increases over time, and mostly that the magnitude of the overestimation
varies along environmental gradients. Typically, areas with a short
growing season and few available observations experience the largest
bias in greening trend estimation. We show these conditions are met in
late snowmelting habitats in the European Alps, which are known to be
particularly sensitive to temperature increases and present conservation
challenges. In this critical context, almost 50% of the magnitude of
estimated greening can be explained by this bias. Our study calls for
greater caution when comparing greening trends magnitudes between
habitats with different snow conditions and observations. At a minimum
we recommend reporting information on the temporal sampling of the
observations, including the number of observations per year, when long
term studies with Landsat observations are undertaken.