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A hybrid identification method for mathematical models for Zika virus
  • S. Buitrago,
  • R. Escalante,
  • M. Villasana
S. Buitrago
Universidad Simon Bolivar

Corresponding Author:sbutrago@usb.ve

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R. Escalante
Universidad de Alcala
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M. Villasana
Universidad Simon Bolivar
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Abstract

This paper studies some deterministic mathematical models that seek to explain the expansion of Zika virus, as a viral epidemic, using published data for Brazil. Three SIR type models considering several aspects in the spread of the disease are considered with 3, 6 and 10 unknown parameters respectively. The parameter identification is carried through a search algorithm based on a combination of a stochastic domain exploration and a heuristic calculation of a descent direction, in order to avoid stopping the algorithm at a local optimum. The models are validated using the epidemic data found. Finally, it was confirmed that the basic reproductive ratio ℜ 0 is consistent with those previously reported in the literature. We conclude that the proposed optimization method improves computation time with respect to a genetic algorithm or an exhaustive search in the parameter space.
23 Mar 2024Submitted to Mathematical Methods in the Applied Sciences
10 Apr 2024Reviewer(s) Assigned
11 Sep 2024Review(s) Completed, Editorial Evaluation Pending
23 Sep 2024Editorial Decision: Revise Minor
14 Oct 20241st Revision Received
22 Oct 2024Assigned to Editor
22 Oct 2024Submission Checks Completed
22 Oct 2024Review(s) Completed, Editorial Evaluation Pending
06 Nov 2024Reviewer(s) Assigned
11 Dec 2024Editorial Decision: Revise Minor