Abstract

Global change drivers alter multiple components of community composition, with cascading impacts on ecosystem stability. However, few studies have examined the complex interplay between global change drivers, synchrony, and diversity, especially over long-term successional dynamics. We analyzed a 22-year time series of grassland community data from Cedar Creek, USA, to examine the joint effects of pulse soil disturbance and press nitrogen addition on community synchrony, diversity, and stability during transient and post-transient periods of succession. Using multiple regression and structural equation modeling, we found that global change drivers decreased both synchrony and stability, thereby decoupling classic theoretical relationships, such as the portfolio effect. While the effect of soil disturbance weakened through time, nitrogen addition induced unexpected dynamics with maintained long-term impacts on composition, synchrony, and stability. Our findings underscore the need for long-term data and a comprehensive approach when managing ecosystems under ongoing global environmental changes.