Analysis and prediction of supermarket energy consumption time series
with significant fractional order characteristics
Abstract
The actual industrial processes are always accompanies by many
non-Gaussian behaviors due to the systems complexity. These behaviors
are fractional order characteristics, which are very difficult to
analyze by traditional analysis methods. This paper presents a detail
fractional order theory analyses based on the fractional order
characteristics present in industrial process. Initially, the -stable
distribution is employed to fit the probability density distribution of
the data and the auto correlation function is applied to find the long
range dependence characteristic hidden in the process. Next, a re-scaled
range method and multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis method is
applied to analyze the fractional order features of the process in
detail. Then, a fractional auto-regressive integrated moving average
model (FARIMA) is proposed to predict accurately of the time series
based on the fractional order characteristic of the system. Experimental
results show that the superiority for prediction model with fractional
order thinking.