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Assessing the variability of Aerosol Optical Depth over India in response to future scenarios: Implications for carbonaceous aerosols
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  • Nidhi L Anchan,
  • Basudev Swain,
  • Amit Sharma,
  • Aishwarya Singh,
  • Chakradhar Reddy Malasani,
  • Arundathi Chandrasekharan,
  • Utkarsh Kumar,
  • Narendra Ojha,
  • Pengfei Liu,
  • Marco Vountas,
  • Sachin S Gunthe
Nidhi L Anchan
Indian Institute of Technology Madras
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Basudev Swain
Institute of Environmental Physics, Department of Physics, University of Bremen
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Amit Sharma
Indian Institute of Technology Jodhpur
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Aishwarya Singh
Indian Institute of Technology Madras
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Chakradhar Reddy Malasani
Indian Institute of Technology Madras
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Arundathi Chandrasekharan
Indian Institute of Technology Madras
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Utkarsh Kumar
Indian Institute of Technology Madras
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Narendra Ojha
Physical Research Laboratory (PRL)
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Pengfei Liu
School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Institute of Technology
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Marco Vountas
Institute of environmental physics/University of Bremen
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Sachin S Gunthe
Environmental Engineering Division, Department of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Madras, Chennai 600036, India.

Corresponding Author:s.gunthe@iitm.ac.in

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Abstract

Air pollution caused by various anthropogenic activities and biomass burning continues to be a major problem in India. To assess the effectiveness of current air pollution mitigation measures, we used a 3D global chemical transport model to analyze the projected optical depth of carbonaceous aerosol (AOD) in India under representative concentration pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 over the period 2000-2100. Our results show a decrease in future emissions, leading to a decrease in modeled AOD under both RCPs after 2030. The RCP4.5 scenario shows a 48-65% decrease in AOD by the end of the century, with the Indo-Gangetic Plain (IGP) experiencing a maximum change of ~25% by 2030 compared to 2010. Conversely, RCP8.5 showed an increase in AOD of ~29% by 2050 and did not indicate a significant decrease by the end of the century. Our study also highlights that it is likely to take three decades for current policies to be effective for regions heavily polluted by exposure to carbonaceous aerosols, such as the IGP and eastern India. We emphasize the importance of assessing the effectiveness of current policies and highlight the need for continued efforts to address the problem of air pollution from carbonaceous aerosols, both from anthropogenic sources and biomass burning, in India.