Forecasting Animal Distribution through Individual Habitat Selection:
Insights for Population Inference and Transferable Predictions
Abstract
Species distribution and habitat selection models frequently use data
collected from a small geographic area over a short window of time to
extrapolate patterns of relative abundance to unobserved areas or
periods of time. However, these types of models often poorly predict how
animals will use habitat beyond the place and time of data collection
because space-use behaviors vary between individuals and are
context-dependent. Here, we present a modelling workflow to advance
predictive distribution performance by explicitly accounting for
individual variability in habitat selection behavior and dependence on
environmental context. Using global positioning system (GPS) data
collected from 238 individual pronghorn, (Antilocapra americana), across
3 years in Utah, we combine individual-year-season-specific exponential
habitat-selection models with weighted mixed-effects regressions to both
draw inference about the drivers of habitat selection and predict
space-use in areas/times where/when pronghorn were not monitored. We
found a tremendous amount of variation in both the magnitude and
direction of habitat selection behavior across seasons, but also across
individuals, geographic regions, and years. We were able to attribute
portions of this variation to season, movement strategy, sex, and
regional variability in resources, conditions, and risks. We were also
able to partition residual variation into inter- and intra-individual
components. We then used the results to predict population-level,
spatially and temporally dynamic, habitat-selection coefficients across
Utah, resulting in a temporally dynamic map of pronghorn distribution at
a 30x30m resolution but an extent of 220,000km2. We believe our
transferable workflow can provide managers and researchers alike a way
to turn limitations of traditional RSF models - variability in habitat
selection - into a tool to improve understanding and predicting animal
distribution across space and time.