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\title{Projecting Global Mercury Emissions and Deposition Under the Shared
Socioeconomic Pathways}



\author[1]{Benjamin M. Geyman}%
\author[1]{David G Streets}%
\author[1]{Colin P Thackray}%
\author[2]{Christine Olson}%
\author[2]{Kevin M. Schaefer}%
\author[1]{Elsie M. Sunderland}%
\affil[1]{Harvard University}%
\affil[2]{University of Colorado Boulder}%


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  \date{May 07, 2026}


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\begin{abstract}
Mercury (Hg) is a naturally occurring element that has been greatly
enriched in the environment by human activities like mining and fossil
fuel combustion. Despite commonalities in some carbon dioxide
(CO\textsubscript{2}) and Hg emission sources, the implications of
long-range climate scenarios for anthropogenic Hg emissions have yet to
be explored. Here, we present comprehensive projections of anthropogenic
Hg emissions extending to the year 2300 and evaluate impacts on global
atmospheric Hg deposition. Projections are based on four Shared
Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) ranging from sustainable reductions in
resource and energy intensity to rapid economic growth driven by
abundant fossil fuel exploitation. There is a greater than two-fold
difference in cumulative anthropogenic Hg emissions between the
lower-bound (110 Gg) and upper-bound (235 Gg) scenarios. Hg releases to
land and water are approximately six times those of direct emissions to
air (600--1,470 Gg). At their peak, anthropogenic Hg emissions reach
2,200--2,600 Mg a\textsuperscript{-1} sometime between 2010 (baseline)
and 2030, depending on the SSP scenario. Coal combustion is the largest
determinant of differences in Hg emissions among scenarios. Decoupling
of Hg and CO\textsubscript{2} emission sources occurs under low-to
mid-range scenarios, though contributions from artisanal and small-scale
gold mining remain uncertain. Future Hg emissions may have lower gaseous
elemental Hg (Hg\textsuperscript{0}) and higher divalent Hg
(Hg\textsuperscript{II}), resulting in a higher fraction of locally
sourced Hg deposition. Projected reemissions of previously deposited
anthropogenic Hg follow a similar temporal trajectory to primary
emissions, amplifying the benefits of primary Hg emission reductions
under the most stringent mitigation scenarios.%
\end{abstract}%



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