Predicting the potential distribution change of the endangered Francois’
langur (Trachypithecus francoisi) across its entire range in China under
climate change
Abstract
The Francois’ langur (Trachypithecus francoisi) is a rare and endangered
and the indicated primate species distributed in karst area in northern
Vietnam and southwestern China. However, holistic conservation
management has been hampered by research limited to specific nature
reserves or sites. Building a comprehensive map of potential
distribution for the Francois’ langur is essential to advance
conservation efforts and ensure coordinated management across regions.
Here, we used 82 occurrence records of Francois’ langur surveyed in
Guangxi, Guizhou, and Chongqing from 2017 to 2020, along with 12
environmental variables to build the potential habitat model under
current and future climate (for the periods 2021-2040, 2041-2060,
2061-2080, 2081-2100) using maximum entropy models (MaxEnt). Our results
indicated that 1) precipitation- and temperature-associated bioclimatic
variables made the greatest contributions to the distribution of
Francois’ langur, vegetation, water source and anthropogenic variables
were also important factors affecting the distribution of Francois’
langur; 2) 144207.44 km2 potential Francois’ langur suitable habitat
across the entire range in China was estimated by the current model,
moderate- and high-suitability habitat accounted for only 23.76%
(34265.96 km2) of the predicted suitable habitat and mainly distributed
in southwest Guangxi, east of Chongqing and the border between Guizhou
and Chongqing; 3) the suitable habitats of Francois’ langur will
dramatically contract under future climate change and the habitat
centroid will move in the southeast direction with the shifting distance
about 2.84km/year from current to 2100. The habitat prediction of
Francois’ langur and related drivers proposed in this work will provide
essential insights for future conservation of this species, which is,
not only existing distribution areas should be monitored and protected,
but also conservation beyond existing habitats should be a focus of
effort, especially future expansion areas, to ensure effective and
timely protection under climate change and anthropogenic pressures.