SLU Artdatabanken
The Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences administers the species the Swedish Species Observation System (Artportalen) to register and map the species diversity of Sweden. This is an online portal where citizens, conservationists, and researchers can report the species they have observed (https://artportalen.se/). I used a subset of this databank by filtering in data on pine and only for observations made between June 2nd of 2020 and June 2nd of 2023. The presence of pine trees was extracted from this dataset along with the geographical coordinates of the observations. This process yielded a total of 9359 data points. Since these data do not include the absence of pine trees, I merged the absence data from the PLOT network into this dataset (n=71). From now on, this dataset is referred to as ART.
Environmental data
Current and forecast global environmental data in the form of minimum temperature (K) and annual precipitation (kg m-2s-1) was sourced from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (i.e., the CMIP5 multi-model ensemble data, https://esgf-node.llnl.gov/projects/esgf-llnl/). This project developed a scientific framework that yielded likely estimates of environmental data linked to GPS coordinates . The data used for this project belong to the 50-year forecast data library and these data are extensively used for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Assessment Reports (Appendix 1, Fig. S1.1). CMIP5 was favored over CMIP6 because its estimates are in line the observations, while CMIP6 robustness remains to be tested due to its recent release .