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Cost-efficiency potential of solar energy on a global scale: Case studies for Si solar modules with PERC and heterojunction structures
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  • Hiroyuki Fujiwara,
  • Tomoya Kobayashi,
  • Hirotaka Katayama,
  • Yosuke Kinden,
  • Yoshitsune Kato,
  • Youichirou Aya,
  • Taiki Hashiguchi,
  • Daiji Kanematsu,
  • Tomonao Kobayashi,
  • Akira Terakawa
Hiroyuki Fujiwara
Gifu Daigaku Kogakubu Daigakuin Kogaku Kenkyuka Denki Denshi Joho Kogakuka

Corresponding Author:fujiwara.hiroyuki.u7@f.gifu-u.ac.jp

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Tomoya Kobayashi
Gifu Daigaku Kogakubu Daigakuin Kogaku Kenkyuka Denki Denshi Joho Kogakuka
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Hirotaka Katayama
Panasonic System Solutions Japan Kabushiki Kaisha
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Yosuke Kinden
Gifu Daigaku Kogakubu Daigakuin Kogaku Kenkyuka Denki Denshi Joho Kogakuka
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Yoshitsune Kato
Gifu Daigaku Kogakubu Daigakuin Kogaku Kenkyuka Denki Denshi Joho Kogakuka
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Youichirou Aya
Panasonic System Solutions Japan Kabushiki Kaisha
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Taiki Hashiguchi
Panasonic System Solutions Japan Kabushiki Kaisha
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Daiji Kanematsu
Panasonic System Solutions Japan Kabushiki Kaisha
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Tomonao Kobayashi
Gifu Daigaku Kogakubu Daigakuin Kogaku Kenkyuka Shakai Kiban Kogakuka
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Akira Terakawa
Panasonic System Solutions Japan Kabushiki Kaisha
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Abstract

Levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) is a crucial metric for assessing the socio-economic cost-efficiency potential of various energy sources including solar photovoltaics. Nevertheless, accurate LCOE estimations for commercialized high-efficiency Si solar modules with passivated emitter and rear cell (PERC) and silicon heterojunction (SHJ) structures have been lacking. In this study, we present the first global LCOE estimates for a PERC module (20% cell efficiency) and a SHJ module (23% cell efficiency), which have been derived by (i) performing rigorous energy-yield calculations with full-spectral and temperature-dependent simulations that incorporate all essential meteorological effects and (ii) considering country-specific capital costs and discount rates. Moreover, to determine the universal global LCOE, the LCOEs for three distinct installation capacities (100 MW for a utility, 500 kW for a commercial, and 5 kW for a residential system) have been unified by selecting an appropriate system size at each location based on a population density. We find that the LCOEs of both PERC and SHJ systems are below 3 cent/kWh in 2020 US dollar in many areas of China, Saudi Arabia, the United States, Australia, Chile, and Botswana where the conditions of a high energy yield, low population density, low capital cost, and low country-risk premium are satisfied simultaneously. In contrast, many European countries exhibit a moderate LCOE of 3~5 cent/kWh. Notably, Japan and Russia exhibit quite high LCOEs (6~10 cent/kWh) primarily due to significantly higher installation costs and moderate energy yields. Importantly, the global LCOEs of the PERC and SHJ modules are quite similar, with the SHJ module showing a slightly better cost performance in the regions near equator due to its low temperature coefficient. Conversely, the PERC module demonstrates cost advantage in the northern hemisphere due to a lower module cost.
25 Aug 2023Submitted to Progress in Photovoltaics
25 Aug 2023Review(s) Completed, Editorial Evaluation Pending
28 Aug 2023Assigned to Editor
28 Aug 2023Submission Checks Completed
15 Oct 2023Reviewer(s) Assigned
15 Apr 2024Editorial Decision: Revise Major
12 May 20241st Revision Received
12 May 2024Submission Checks Completed
12 May 2024Assigned to Editor
12 May 2024Review(s) Completed, Editorial Evaluation Pending
18 May 2024Reviewer(s) Assigned
23 Jun 2024Editorial Decision: Accept