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Refining seabird marine protected areas by predicting habitat inside foraging range - a case study from the global tropics
  • +57
  • Mark Miller,
  • Graham Hemson,
  • Julie Du Toit,
  • Andrew McDougall,
  • Peter Miller,
  • Akira Mizutani,
  • Alice Trevail,
  • Alison Small,
  • Andreas Ravache,
  • Annalea Beard,
  • Ashley Bunce,
  • Caroline Poli,
  • Chris Surman,
  • Diego Gonzalez-Zamora,
  • Elizabeth Clingham,
  • Eric Vidal,
  • Fiona McDuie,
  • Gabriel Machovsky-Capuska,
  • Graeme Cumming,
  • Grant Humphries,
  • Henri Weimerskirch,
  • Judy Shamoun-Baranes,
  • Leeann Henry,
  • Hannah Wood,
  • Hillary Young,
  • Hiroyoshi Kohno,
  • Jacob Gonzalez-Sol�s,
  • Jacopo Cecere,
  • Jan Veen,
  • Jessica Neumann,
  • Jill SHEPHARD,
  • Jonathan Green,
  • José Castillo-Guerrero,
  • Julia Sommerfeld,
  • Justine Dossa,
  • Karen Bourgeois,
  • Ken Yoda,
  • Lachlan McLeay,
  • Licia Calabrese,
  • Loriane Mendez,
  • Louise Soanes,
  • Malcolm Nicoll,
  • Mia Derhé,
  • Morgan Gilmour,
  • Ngone Diop,
  • Nicholas James,
  • Pete Carr,
  • Rhiannon Austin,
  • Robin Freeman,
  • Rohan Clarke,
  • Rowan Mott,
  • Sarah Maxwell,
  • Sarah Saldanha,
  • Scott Shaffer,
  • S. Oppel,
  • Stephen Votier,
  • Takashi Yamamoto,
  • Teresa Militão,
  • Maria Beger,
  • Bradley Congdon
Mark Miller
Monash University

Corresponding Author:mark.miller1@monash.edu

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Graham Hemson
Queensland Government
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Julie Du Toit
Queensland Government
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Andrew McDougall
Queensland Government
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Peter Miller
Plymouth Marine Laboratory
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Akira Mizutani
Island Ecosystem Research
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Alice Trevail
University of Exeter
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Alison Small
NatureSpace Partnership
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Andreas Ravache
IRD, Univ Réunion, CNRS, IFREMER, Univ Nouvelle Calédonie
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Annalea Beard
Cardiff University
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Ashley Bunce
The University of Queensland School of Biological Sciences
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Caroline Poli
University of Florida
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Chris Surman
Halfmoon Biosciences
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Diego Gonzalez-Zamora
Centro de Investigación Científica y de Educación Superior de Ensenada
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Elizabeth Clingham
St Helena Government
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Eric Vidal
IRD, Univ Réunion, CNRS, IFREMER, Univ Nouvelle Calédonie
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Fiona McDuie
U.S. Geological Survey Western Ecological Research Center
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Gabriel Machovsky-Capuska
Nutrilens
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Graeme Cumming
The University of Western Australia
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Grant Humphries
Black Bawks Data Science
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Henri Weimerskirch
CEBC
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Judy Shamoun-Baranes
Universiteit van Amsterdam
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Leeann Henry
St Helena Government
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Hannah Wood
Zoological Society of London Institute of Zoology
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Hillary Young
University of California Santa Barbara Department of Ecology Evolution and Marine Biology
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Hiroyoshi Kohno
Island Ecosystem Research
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Jacob Gonzalez-Sol�s
Universitat de Barcelona Departament de Biologia Evolutiva Ecologia i Ciències Ambientals
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Jacopo Cecere
Area Avifauna Migratrice, Istituto Superiore per la Protezione e la Ricerca Ambientale (ISPRA)
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Jan Veen
VEDA Consultancy
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Jessica Neumann
University of Reading
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Jill SHEPHARD
Murdoch University
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Jonathan Green
University of Liverpool School of Environmental Sciences
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José Castillo-Guerrero
Centro de Investigación en Alimentación y Desarrollo
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Julia Sommerfeld
Büro für faunistische Fachfragen
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Justine Dossa
Birdlife International
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Karen Bourgeois
IMBE, Aix Marseille Université, CNRS, IRD, Avignon Université, Centre IRD Nouméa
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Ken Yoda
Nagoya University
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Lachlan McLeay
South Australian Research and Development Institute
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Licia Calabrese
University of Seychelles
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Loriane Mendez
Mediterranean Science Commission (CIESM)
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Louise Soanes
University of Liverpool School of Environmental Sciences
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Malcolm Nicoll
Institute of Zoology of the Zoological Society of London
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Mia Derhé
Bumblebee Conservation Trust
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Morgan Gilmour
University of California Santa Cruz Department of Ocean Sciences
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Ngone Diop
Cheikh Anta Diop University of Dakar
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Nicholas James
James Cook University College of Science and Engineering
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Pete Carr
Institute of Zoology of the Zoological Society of London
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Rhiannon Austin
University of Liverpool
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Robin Freeman
Institute of Zoology of the Zoological Society of London
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Rohan Clarke
Monash University
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Rowan Mott
Monash University
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Sarah Maxwell
University of Washington
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Sarah Saldanha
Universitat de Barcelona Departament de Biologia Evolutiva Ecologia i Ciències Ambientals
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Scott Shaffer
San Jose State University
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S. Oppel
RSPB
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Stephen Votier
Heriot-Watt University
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Takashi Yamamoto
Azabu University Graduate School of Veterinary Medicine School of Veterinary Medicine
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Teresa Militão
Universitat de Barcelona Departament de Biologia Evolutiva Ecologia i Ciències Ambientals
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Maria Beger
University of Leeds Faculty of Biological Sciences
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Bradley Congdon
James Cook University College of Science and Engineering
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Abstract

Conservation of breeding seabirds typically requires detailed data on where they feed at sea. Ecological niche models (ENMs) can fill data gaps, but rarely perform well when transferred to new regions. Alternatively, the foraging radius approach simply encircles the sea surrounding a breeding seabird colony (a foraging circle), but overestimates foraging habitat. Here, we investigate whether ENMs can transfer (predict) foraging niches of breeding tropical seabirds between global colonies, and whether ENMs can refine foraging circles. We collate a large global dataset of tropical seabird tracks (12000 trips, 16 species, 60 colonies) to build a comprehensive summary of tropical seabird foraging ranges and to train ENMs. We interrogate ENM transferability and assess the confidence with which unsuitable habitat predicted by ENMs can be excluded from within foraging circles. We apply this refinement framework to the Great Barrier Reef (GBR), Australia to identify a network of candidate marine protected areas (MPAs) for seabirds. We found little ability to generalise and transfer breeding tropical seabird foraging niches across all colonies for any species (mean AUC: 0.56, range 0.4-0.82). Low global transferability was partially explained by colony clusters that predicted well internally but other colony clusters poorly. After refinement with ENMs, foraging circles still contained 89% of known foraging areas from tracking data, providing confidence that important foraging habitat was not erroneously excluded by greater refinement from high transferability ENMs nor minor refinement from low transferability ENMs. Foraging radii estimated the total foraging area of the GBR breeding seabird community as 2,941,000 km2, which was refined by excluding between 197,000 km2 and 1,826,000 km2 of unsuitable foraging habitat. ENMs trained on local GBR tracking achieved superior refinement over globally trained models, demonstrating the value of local tracking. Our framework demonstrates an effective method to delineate candidate MPAs for breeding seabirds in data-poor regions.