Short-term load and spinning reserve prediction based on LSTM and ANFIS
with PSO algorithm
Abstract
In this paper, Short-term predicting of load and spinning reserve is
first performed using a combination of ANFIS and meta-heuristic
algorithms including Differential Evolution (DE), Genetic Algorithm (GA)
and Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO). The ANFIS-PSO combination is
selected as the best ANFIS combination in load and spinning reserve
prediction with a lower error criterion than other methods. As a DL
method, LSTM network can provide good accuracy for load and spinning
reserve forecasting. In the optimal ANFIS-PSO method, the average error
value is low, but the error variance is high, on the contrary, in the
LSTM method, the average error value is high, and the error variance is
low. Therefore, we use the combination of ANFIS-PSO and LSTM to reduce
the average error and error variance to an acceptable level. The
weighted average method is as follows: the accuracy of each Method is
obtained in the training step, then the predicted value for each data in
the test step is calculated in each Method, then they are multiplied,
and after that added together, finally will be divided to the total
accuracy of two methods. The results obtained from the weighted average
Method show the success of the proposed Method.