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\title{Decadal variability of the extratropical response to the Madden-Julian
Oscillation}



\author[1]{Daniel Thomas Skinner}%
\author[1]{Adrian J Matthews}%
\author[1]{David P. Stevens}%
\affil[1]{University of East Anglia}%


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  \date{May 07, 2026}


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\begin{abstract}
The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is the leading mode of sub-seasonal
variability in the tropical atmosphere and is a source of predictability
for extratropical weather through its teleconnections. MJO
teleconnection patterns can be modulated by the El Ni\selectlanguage{ngerman}ño-Southern
Oscillation (ENSO) on seasonal to interannual time scales. However,
changes over decadal time scales are less well understood. ERA5
reanalysis data are used to show that the boreal winter MJO
teleconnection pattern in the Northern Hemisphere has changed in recent
decades in line with changes in the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and
Atlantic Multidecadal Variability. Changes are seen in the circulation,
temperature and precipitation responses. In particular, from 1997,
intraseasonal cold anomalies appear over Europe and the eastern United
States due to MJO convection over the western Pacific; these were not
present 20 years previously. The decadal variability observed is not the
product of aliasing of ENSO modulation of the teleconnection.%
\end{abstract}\selectlanguage{ngerman}%



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