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\title{Science AMA Series: Climate models are more accurate than previous
evaluations suggest. We are a bunch of scientists and graduate students
who recently published a paper demonstrating this, Ask Us Anything!}



\author[1]{RobustTempComparison }%
\author[1]{r/Science AMAs}%
\affil[1]{Affiliation not available}%


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  \date{April 23, 2026}


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\begin{abstract}
EDIT: Okay everyone, thanks for all of your questions! We hope we got to
them. If we didn't feel free to message me at /u/past\_is\_future and I
will try to answer you specifically! Thanks so much! Hello there,
/r/Science! We* are a group of researchers who just published a paper
showing previous comparisons of global temperatures change from
observations and climate models were comparing slightly different
things, causing them to appear to disagree far more than they actually
do. The lead author Kevin Cowtan has a backgrounder on the paper here
and data and code posted here. Coauthor /u/ed\_hawkins also did a
background post on his blog here. Basically, the observational
temperature record consists of land surface measurements which are taken
at 2m off the ground, and sea surface temperature measurements which are
taken from, well, the surface waters of the sea. However, most climate
model data used in comparisons to observations samples the air
temperature at 2m over land and ocean. The actual sea surface
temperature warms at a slightly lower rate than the air above it in
climate models, so this apples to oranges comaprison makes it look like
the models are running too hot compared to observations than they
actually are. This gets further complicated when dealing with the way
the temperature at the sea ice-ocean boundaries are treated, as these
change over time. All of this is detailed in greater length in Kevin's
backgrounder and of course in the paper itself. The upshot of our paper
is that climate models and observations are in better agreement than
some recent comparisons have made it seem, and we are basically warming
inline with model expectations when we also consider differences in the
modeled and realized forcings and internal climate variability (e.g.
Schmidt et al. 2014). You can read some other summaries of this project
here, here, and here. We're here to answer your questions about Rampart
this paper and maybe climate science more generally. Ask us anything!
*Joining you today will be: Zeke Hausfather aka /u/ZekeHausfather Ed
Hawkins aka /u/ed\_hawkins Peter Jacobs aka /u/past\_is\_future Michael
Mann aka /u/MichaelEMann Robert Way aka https://twitter.com/labradorice
and perhaps some others if they have time%
\end{abstract}%



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