Attrition and its predictors among adults enrolled in cART programs in
two referral hospitals in the northern coastal areas of Eritrea: 16-year
retrospective study
Abstract
Background: Many view attrition as one of the biggest barriers
to effective delivery of cART in resource-limited settings in
sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). In this study, our objective was to describe
the incidence and predictors of attrition among adults enrolled in cART
programs in two referral hospitals in the northern coastal areas of
Eritrea. Methods: This was a retrospective review of patient
records of 464 patients [Male: 149(35.6%) vs. Females: 269(64.4%)]
aged 18 years who initiated cART between 2005 and 2021. The main outcome
measures were attrition (loss-to-follow-up (LTFU) plus mortality) and
associated outcomes. Kaplan-Meier statistics were used to evaluate
survival probability of attrition. Independent predictors of attrition
were evaluated using a multivariable Cox proportional hazard model.
Results: A total of 418 patients [Male: 149(35.6%) vs.
Female: 269 (64.4%)] were studied. At baseline, the mean (±SD) age
(SD) was 34(±11.2) years; median (±IQR) CD4 + T-cell
count was 151 (IQR: 87-257) cells/µL. After a follow-up time of 39,883
months, 127 ((30.4%), 95% CI [26-35]) attrition events were
reported, translating into a cumulative incidence of 2.9/1000(2.4-3.5)
per 1,000 people-months (PMs) were reported. During the same period, 97
(23.11%) patients died, 32(7.7%) were LTFU, and 47(11.2%) transferred
out. In the adjusted multivariate Cox regression model, an increased
risk of attrition was associated with the year of enrollment (aHR =
1.07, 95% CI 1.00-1.15, p-value = 0.04); ethnicity (Afar: aHR=3.21,
95% CI: 1.84-5.59, p value < 0.001) (Others: aHR = 2.67, 95%
CI: 1.14-6.25, p value = 0.024) and cART backbone: (TDF+FTC: aHR=2, 95%
CI: 1.21-3.32, p value = 0.007). On the contrary, the risk of attrition
decreased per unit increase in baseline CD4 +
T-cells/μL (uHR=0.998, 95% CI 0.996-0.999, p-value<0.001).
Conclusion: Despite expanded treatment and decentralization of
cART programs, mortality due to advanced disease at enrollment remains
high in peripheral settings. A concerted effort is required to reduce
late enrollment and improve the management of patients with advanced
disease in decentralized programs.