Satellite-based long-term spatiotemporal trends in ambient NO2
concentrations and attributable health burdens in China from 2005 to
2020
Abstract
Limited research has assessed the spatio-temporal distribution and
chronic health effects of NO2 exposure, especially in developing
countries, due to the lack of historical NO2 data. A gap-filling model
was first adopted to impute the missing NO2 column densities from
satellite, then an ensemble machine learning model incorporating three
base learners was developed to estimate the spatiotemporal pattern of
monthly mean NO2 concentrations at 0.05° spatial resolution from 2005 to
2020 in China. Further, we applied the exposure dataset with
epidemiologically derived exposure response relations to estimate the
annual NO2 associated mortality burdens in China. The coverage of
satellite NO2 column densities increased from 46.9% to 100% after
gap-filling. The ensemble model predictions had good agreement with
observations, and the overall, temporal and spatial cross-validation
(CV) R2 were 0.88, 0.82 and 0.73, respectively. In addition, our model
can provide accurate historical NO2 concentrations, with both by-year CV
R2 and external separate year validation R2 achieving 0.80. The
estimated national NO2 levels showed a increasing trend during
2005-2011, then decreased gradually until 2020, especially in 2012-2015.
The estimated annual mortality burden attributable to long-term NO2
exposure ranged from 305 thousand to 416 thousand, and varied
considerably across provinces in China. This satellite-based ensemble
model could provide reliable long-term NO2 predictions at a high spatial
resolution with complete coverage for environmental and epidemiological
studies in China. Our results also highlighted the heavy disease burden
by NO2 and call for more targeted policies to reduce the emission of
nitrogen oxides in China.