Paper mulberry pollens are known to trigger severe allergies that can
also cause asthma exacerbations. In Islamabad, the paper mulberry pollen
concentrations are thought to peak between the 10th and 31st of March
each year, depending on the weather in the preceding months. However,
more accurate prediction of high pollen days would allow patients to
take more timely precautionary measures. We developed and validated two
prediction algorithms that took historical pollen data and historical
weather data in Islamabad as its input. One is based on linear
regression and the other is based on phenological modelling. These
algorithms gave encouraging results where the mean absolute error for
start day was between 2.33 and 3.67 days. On the other hand, for peak
day, the mean absolute error was recorded between 3.33 and 4 days. These
results could be used in a website or app to notify patients and
healthcare providers to start preparing for the paper mulberry pollen
season and its adverse effects.