Differentiable conceptual-neural framework for improved prediction
accuracy and interpretability in regulated and intermittent streamflow
Abstract
Global hydrological systems are transforming as regulation, reservoir
operations, and intermittent flows reshape river regimes. Existing
conceptual models, while interpretable, often underperform under
conditions such as non-perennial flows and complex reservoir management.
Fully distributed physically-based models, though robust, require
extensive data and parameterization, limiting their utility in
data-scarce contexts. Here, we develop a Hydro-Integrated Recurrent
Neural Network (HIRNN), a fully differentiable hybrid framework that
integrates conceptual modeling principles with the adaptive learning
capabilities of recurrent neural networks. HIRNN explicitly accounts for
intermittent flows and reservoir storage dynamics, achieving improved
predictive performance and diagnostic insights. By explicitly modeling
these key factors, HIRNN significantly improves predictive performance
in 222 global basins, boosting Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency by up to
237.5\% in managed perennial catchments on modifying
original model structure. This framework combines interpretability and
scalability, enabling deployment in data-limited settings and informing
adaptive water resource management as hydrological pressures intensify.