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Compensatory Effects between CO2, Nitrogen Deposition, and Temperature in Terrestrial Biosphere Models without Nitrogen Compromise Projections of the Future Terrestrial Carbon Sink
  • Sian Kou-Giesbrecht,
  • Vivek Arora
Sian Kou-Giesbrecht
Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis

Corresponding Author:sian.kougiesbrecht@gmail.com

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Vivek Arora
Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis
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Abstract

The strength of CO2 fertilisation is a major uncertainty across terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs) and is suggested to be overestimated without a representation of nitrogen (N) limitation. Here, we compare TBM projections with and without coupled C and N cycling over alternative future scenarios (the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways) to examine how representing N cycling influences CO2 fertilisation as well as the effects of a comprehensive group of physical and socioeconomic global change drivers. Because elevated N deposition and N mineralisation (driven by elevated temperature) have stimulated terrestrial C sequestration over the historical period, a TBM without N cycling must exaggerate the strength of CO2 fertilisation to compensate for these unrepresented N processes and to reproduce the historical terrestrial C sink. As a result, it cannot reliably project the future terrestrial C sink, overestimating CO2 fertilisation as CO2 increases faster than N deposition and temperature in future scenarios.