Addressing uncertainty when projecting marine species distributions
under climate change
Abstract
Species distribution models (SDMs) have been widely used to project
terrestrial species’ responses to climate change and are increasingly
being used for similar objectives in the marine realm. These projections
are critically needed to develop strategies for resource management and
the conservation of marine ecosystems. SDMs are a powerful and necessary
tool; however, they are subject to many sources of uncertainty. To
ensure that SDM projections are informative for management and
conservation decisions, sources of uncertainty must be considered and
properly addressed. Here we provide ten overarching guidelines that will
aid researchers to identify, minimize, and account for uncertainty
through the entire model development process, from the formation of a
study question to the presentation of results. These guidelines were
developed at an international workshop attended by over 50 researchers
and practitioners. Although our guidelines are broadly applicable across
biological realms, we provide particular focus to the challenges and
uncertainties associated with projecting the impacts of climate change
on marine species and ecosystems.