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Addressing uncertainty when projecting marine species distributions under climate change
  • +16
  • Sarah Davies,
  • Patrick Thompson,
  • Catalina Gomez,
  • Jessica Nephin,
  • Anders Knudby,
  • Ashley Park,
  • Sarah Friesen,
  • Laura Pollock,
  • Emily Rubidge,
  • Sean Anderson,
  • Josephine Iacarella,
  • Devin Lyons,
  • A. Andrew MacDonald,
  • Andrew McMillan,
  • Eric Ward,
  • Amber Holdsworth,
  • Neil Swart,
  • Jeff Price,
  • Karen Hunter
Sarah Davies
Fisheries and Oceans Canada - Pacific Biological Station

Corresponding Author:sarah.davies@dfo-mpo.gc.ca

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Patrick Thompson
Pacific Region Institute of Ocean Sciences
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Catalina Gomez
Bedford Institute of Oceanography
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Jessica Nephin
Pacific Region Institute of Ocean Sciences
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Anders Knudby
University of Ottawa
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Ashley Park
Pacific Region Institute of Ocean Sciences
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Sarah Friesen
Pacific Region Institute of Ocean Sciences
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Laura Pollock
McGill University
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Emily Rubidge
Pacific Region Institute of Ocean Sciences
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Sean Anderson
Fisheries and Oceans Canada - Pacific Biological Station
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Josephine Iacarella
Fisheries and Oceans Canada Pacific Region
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Devin Lyons
Bedford Institute of Oceanography
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A. Andrew MacDonald
Université de Sherbrooke
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Andrew McMillan
Fisheries and Oceans Canada - Pacific Biological Station
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Eric Ward
NOAA Fisheries Northwest Fisheries Science Center
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Amber Holdsworth
Pacific Region Institute of Ocean Sciences
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Neil Swart
Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis
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Jeff Price
University of East Anglia
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Karen Hunter
Fisheries and Oceans Canada - Pacific Biological Station
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Abstract

Species distribution models (SDMs) have been widely used to project terrestrial species’ responses to climate change and are increasingly being used for similar objectives in the marine realm. These projections are critically needed to develop strategies for resource management and the conservation of marine ecosystems. SDMs are a powerful and necessary tool; however, they are subject to many sources of uncertainty. To ensure that SDM projections are informative for management and conservation decisions, sources of uncertainty must be considered and properly addressed. Here we provide ten overarching guidelines that will aid researchers to identify, minimize, and account for uncertainty through the entire model development process, from the formation of a study question to the presentation of results. These guidelines were developed at an international workshop attended by over 50 researchers and practitioners. Although our guidelines are broadly applicable across biological realms, we provide particular focus to the challenges and uncertainties associated with projecting the impacts of climate change on marine species and ecosystems.
20 Dec 2022Submitted to Ecography
21 Dec 2022Submission Checks Completed
21 Dec 2022Assigned to Editor
21 Dec 2022Review(s) Completed, Editorial Evaluation Pending
16 Jan 2023Reviewer(s) Assigned
26 Feb 2023Editorial Decision: Revise Major
27 May 20231st Revision Received
29 May 2023Submission Checks Completed
29 May 2023Assigned to Editor
29 May 2023Review(s) Completed, Editorial Evaluation Pending
31 May 2023Reviewer(s) Assigned
28 Jun 2023Editorial Decision: Accept