Marine extreme events such as marine heatwaves, ocean acidity extremes and low oxygen extremes can pose a substantial threat to marine organisms and ecosystems. Such extremes might be particularly detrimental (i) when they occur compounded in more than one stressor, and (ii) when the extremes extend substantially across the water column, restricting the habitable space for marine organisms. Here, we use daily output from a hindcast simulation (1961-2020) from the ocean component of the Community Earth System Model (CESM) to characterise such column-compound extreme events (CCX), employing a relative threshold approach to identify the extremes and requiring them to extend vertically over at least 50m. The diagnosed CCXs are prevalent, occupying worldwide in the 1960s about 1% of the volume contained within the top 300m. Over the duration of our simulation, CCXs become more intense, last longer, and occupy more volume, driven by the trends in ocean warming and ocean acidification. For example, the triple CCX have expanded 24-fold, now last 3-times longer, and have become 6-times more intense since the early 1960s. Removing this effect with a moving baseline permits us to better understand the key characteristics of the CCXs. They last typically about 10 to 30 days and predominantly occur in the tropics and the high latitudes, regions of high potential biological vulnerability. Overall, the CCXs fall into 16 clusters, reflecting different patterns and drivers. Triple CCX are largely confined to the tropics and the North Pacific, and tend to be associated with the El Nino-Southern Oscillation.

Ocean acidification driven by the uptake of anthropogenic CO2 represents a major threat to ocean ecosystems, yet little is known about its progression beneath the surface. Here, we reconstruct the history of ocean interior acidification (OIA) from 1800 to 2014 on the basis of observation-based estimates of the accumulation of anthropogenic carbon. Across the top 100 m and over the industrial era, the saturation state of aragonite (Ωarag) and pH = -log[H+] decreased by more than 0.6 and 0.1, respectively, with a progress of nearly 50% over the last 20 years (1994-2014). While the magnitude of the Ωarag change decreases uniformly with depth, the magnitude of the pH decrease exhibits a distinct maximum in the upper thermocline. Since 1800, the saturation horizon (Ωarag=1) shoaled by more than 200 m, approaching the euphotic zone in several regions, especially in the Southern Ocean, and exposing many organisms to corrosive conditions.

The ocean is a major carbon sink and takes up 25-30% of the anthropogenically emitted CO2. A state-of-the-art method to quantify this sink are global ocean biogeochemistry models (GOBMs) but their simulated CO2 uptake differs between models and is systematically lower than estimates based on statistical methods using surface ocean pCO2 and interior ocean measurements. Here, we provide an in-depth evaluation of ocean carbon sink estimates from 1980 to 2018 from a GOBM ensemble. As sources of inter-model differences and ensemble-mean biases our study identifies the (i) model set-up, such as the length of the spin-up, the starting date of the simulation, and carbon fluxes from rivers and into sediments, (ii) the ocean circulation, such as Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation and Southern Ocean mode and intermediate water formation, and (iii) the oceanic buffer capacity. Our analysis suggests that the late starting date and biases in the ocean circulation cause a too low anthropogenic CO2 uptake across the GOBM ensemble. Surface ocean biogeochemistry biases might also cause simulated anthropogenic fluxes to be too low but the current set-up prevents a robust assessment. For simulations of the ocean carbon sink, we recommend in the short-term to (1) start simulations in 1765, when atmospheric CO2 started to increase, (2) conduct a sufficiently long spin-up such that the GOBMs reach steady-state, and (3) provide key metrics for circulation, biogeochemistry, and the land-ocean interface. In the long-term, we recommend improving the representation of these metrics in the GOBMs.

The oceanic storage of anthropogenic CO2 (Cant) that humans have emitted into the atmosphere has been pivotal for counteracting climate change. Yet multi-decadal trends in the ocean interior storage of Cant have not been assessed at global scale. Here, we determine storage changes of Cant by applying the eMLR(C*) regression method to ocean interior observations collected between 1989 and 2020. We find that the global ocean storage of Cant grew by 29 ± 3 Pg C dec-1 and 27 ± 3 Pg C dec-1 (±1σ) from 1994 to 2004 and 2004 to 2014, respectively. Although the two growth rates are not significantly different, they imply a reduction of the oceanic uptake fraction of the anthropogenic emissions from 36 ± 4 % to 27 ± 3 % from the first to the second decade. We attribute this reduction to a decrease of the ocean buffer capacity and changes in ocean circulation. In the Atlantic Ocean, the maximum storage rate shifted from the Northern to the Southern Hemisphere, plausibly caused by a weaker formation rate of North Atlantic Deep Waters and an intensified ventilation of mode and intermediate waters in the Southern Hemisphere. Between 1994 and 2004, the oceanic Cant accumulation exceeded the net air-sea flux by 8 ± 4 Pg C dec-1, suggesting a loss of natural carbon from the ocean during this decade. Our results reveal a substantial sensitivity of the ocean carbon sink to climate variability and change.

The oceans are acidifying in response to the oceanic uptake of anthropogenic CO2 from the atmosphere, yet the global-scale progression of this acidification has been poorly documented so far by observations. Here, we fill this gap and use an observation-based product, OceanSODA-ETHZ, to determine the trends and drivers of the surface ocean aragonite saturation state (Ωar) and pH over the last four decades (1982-2021). In the global mean, Ωar and pH declined at rates of -0.071 ± 0.001 decade-1 and -0.0170 ± 0.0001 decade-1, respectively. These trends are driven primarily by the increase in the surface ocean concentration of dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) in response to the uptake of anthropogenic CO2 but moderated by changes in natural DIC. Surface warming enhances the decrease in pH, accounting for ∼15% of the global trend. Substantial ENSO-driven interannual variability is superimposed on these trends, with Ωar showing greater variability than pH.

We assess the Southern Ocean CO2 uptake (1985-2018) using data sets gathered in the REgional Carbon Cycle Assessment and Processes Project phase 2 (RECCAP2). The Southern Ocean acted as a sink for CO2 with close agreement between simulation results from global ocean biogeochemistry models (GOBMs, 0.75±0.28 PgCyr-1) and pCO2-observation-based products (0.73±0.07 PgCyr-1). This sink is only half that reported by RECCAP1. The present-day net uptake is to first order a response to rising atmospheric CO2, driving large amounts of anthropogenic CO2 (Cant) into the ocean, thereby overcompensating the loss of natural CO2 to the atmosphere. An apparent knowledge gap is the increase of the sink since 2000, with pCO2-products suggesting a growth that is more than twice as strong and uncertain as that of GOBMs (0.26±0.06 and 0.11±0.03 PgCyr-1 decade-1 respectively). This is despite nearly identical pCO2 trends in GOBMs and pCO2-products when both products are compared only at the locations where pCO2 was measured. Seasonal analyses revealed agreement in driving processes in winter with uncertainty in the magnitude of outgassing, whereas discrepancies are more fundamental in summer, when GOBMs exhibit difficulties in simulating the effects of the non-thermal processes of biology and mixing/circulation. Ocean interior accumulation of Cant points to an underestimate of Cant uptake and storage in GOBMs. Future work needs to link surface fluxes and interior ocean transport, build long overdue systematic observation networks and push towards better process understanding of drivers of the carbon cycle.

This study characterized ocean biological carbon pump metrics in the second iteration of the REgional Carbon Cycle Assessment and Processes (RECCAP2) project, a coordinated, international effort to constrain contemporary ocean carbon air-sea fluxes and interior carbon storage trends using a combination of observation-based estimates, inverse models, and global ocean biogeochemical models. The analysis here focused on comparisons of global and biome-scale regional patterns in particulate organic carbon production and sinking flux from the RECCAP2 model ensemble against observational products derived from satellite remote sensing, sediment traps, and geochemical methods. There was generally encouraging model-data agreement in large-scale spatial patterns, though with substantial spread across the model ensemble and observational products. The global-integrated, model ensemble-mean export production, taken as the sinking particulate organic carbon flux at 100 m (6.41 ± 1.52 Pg C yr–1), and export ratio defined as sinking flux divided by net primary production (0.154 ± 0.026) both fell at the lower end of observational estimates. Comparison with observational constraints also suggested that the model ensemble may have underestimated regional biological CO2 drawdown and air-sea CO2 flux in high productivity regions. Reasonable model-data agreement was found for global-integrated, ensemble-mean sinking particulate organic carbon flux into the deep ocean at 1000 m (0.95 ± 0.64 Pg C yr–1) and the transfer efficiency defined as flux at 1000m divided by flux at 100m (0.121 ± 0.035), with both variables exhibiting considerable regional variability. Future modeling studies are needed to improve system-level simulation of interaction between model ocean physics and biogeochemical response.

Marine heatwaves (MHWs) have been recognized as a serious threat to marine life, yet, most studies so far have focused on the surface only. Here, we investigate the vertical dimension and propagation of surface MHWs in the Eastern Pacific using results from a high-resolution hindcast simulation (1979 to 2019), performed with the Regional Ocean Modeling System. We detect MHWs using a seasonally varying percentile threshold on a fixed baseline and track their vertical propagation across the upper 500 m. We find that nearly a third (∼ 29 %) of the MHWs extend beyond the surface mixed layer depth (MLD). On average, these deep-reaching MHWs (dMHWs) extend to 110 m below the MLD and last five times longer than MHWs that are confined to the mixed layer (184 vs. 36 days). The dMHWs can cause stronger temperature anomalies at depth than at the surface (maximum intensity of 5.0°C vs. 1.9°C). This general subsurface MHW intensification even holds when scaling the temperatures with the respective local variability. A clustering of dMHWs reveals that 41 % of them are block-like, i.e., continually remain in contact with the sea surface, 24 % propagate downward, 20 % propagate upward, while 15 % appear at the surface multiple times. Although the water column MHW duration, intensity and severity are only moderately correlated with their corresponding surface-based MHW characteristics, dMHWs have the potential to be detected from the surface. Our study can help to augment the remote sensing-based monitoring of upper ocean exposure to MHWs.

Measurements of the surface ocean fugacity of carbon dioxide (fCO2) provide an important constraint on the global ocean carbon sink, yet the gap filling products developed so far to cope with the sparse observations are relatively coarse (1°x1° by 1 month). Here, we overcome this limitation by using the newly developed surface Ocean Carbon dioxide Neural Network (OceanCarbNN) method to estimate surface ocean fCO2 and the associated air sea CO2 fluxes (FCO2) at a resolution of 8-daily by 0.25°x0.25° (8D) over the period 1982 through 2022. The method reconstructs fCO2 with accuracy like that of low-resolution methods (~19 µatm) but improves it in the coastal ocean. Although global ocean CO2 uptake differs little, the 8D product captures 15\% more variance in FCO2. Most of this increase comes from the better-represented subseasonal scale variability, which is largely driven by the better resolved variability of the winds, but also contributed to by the better resolved fCO2. The high-resolution fCO2 is also able to capture the signal of short-lived regional events such as coastal upwelling and hurricanes. For example, the 8D product reveals that fCO2 was at least 25 µatm lower in the wake of Hurricane Maria (2017), the result of a complex interplay between the decrease in temperature, the entrainment of carbon-rich waters, and an increase in primary production. By providing new insights into the role of higher frequency variations of the ocean carbon sink and the underlying processes, the 8D product fills an important gap.

The coastal ocean contributes to regulating atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations by taking up carbon dioxide (CO2) and releasing nitrous oxide (N2O) and methane (CH4). Major advances have improved our understanding of the coastal air-sea exchanges of these three gasses since the first phase of the Regional Carbon Cycle Assessment and Processes (RECCAP in 2013), but a comprehensive view that integrates the three gasses at the global scale is still lacking. In this second phase (RECCAP2), we quantify global coastal ocean fluxes of CO2, N2O and CH4 using an ensemble of global gap-filled observation-based products and ocean biogeochemical models. The global coastal ocean is a net sink of CO2 in both observational products and models, but the magnitude of the median net global coastal uptake is ~60% larger in models (-0.72 vs. -0.44 PgC/yr, 1998-2018, coastal ocean area of 77 million km2). We attribute most of this model-product difference to the seasonality in sea surface CO2 partial pressure at mid- and high-latitudes, where models simulate stronger winter CO2 uptake. The global coastal ocean is a major source of N2O (+0.70 PgCO2-e /yr in observational product and +0.54 PgCO2-e /yr in model median) and of CH4 (+0.21 PgCO2-e /yr in observational product), which offsets a substantial proportion of the net radiative effect of coastal \co uptake (35-58% in CO2-equivalents). Data products and models need improvement to better resolve the spatio-temporal variability and long term trends in CO2, N2O and CH4 in the global coastal ocean.

\justify Several methods have been developed to quantify the oceanic accumulation of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO$_2$) in response to rising atmospheric CO$_2$. Yet, we still lack a corresponding estimate of the changes in the total oceanic dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC). In addition to the increase in anthropogenic CO$_2$, changes in DIC also include alterations of natural CO$_2$. Once integrated globally, changes in DIC reflect the net oceanic sink for atmospheric CO$_2$, complementary to estimates of the air-sea CO$_2$ exchange based on surface measurements. Here, we extend the MOBO-DIC machine learning approach by \citeA{keppler_mapped_2020} to estimate global monthly fields of DIC at 1$^{\circ}$ resolution over the top 1500 m from 2004 through 2019. We find that over these 16 years and extrapolated to cover the whole global ocean down to 4000 m, the oceanic DIC pool increased close to linearly at an average rate of 3.2$\pm$0.7 Pg C yr$^{-1}$. This trend is statistically indistinguishable from current estimates of the oceanic uptake of anthropogenic CO$_2$ over the same period. Thus, our study implies no detectable net loss or gain of natural CO$_2$ by the ocean, albeit the large uncertainties could be masking it. Our reconstructions suggest substantial internal redistributions of natural oceanic CO$_2$, with a shift from the mid-latitudes to the tropics and from the surface to below $\sim$200 m. Such redistributions correspond with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. The interannual variability of DIC is strongest in the tropical Western Pacific, consistent with the El Ni$\tilde{n}$o Southern Oscillation.