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Prediction of Plasma Pressure in the Outer Part of the Inner Magnetosphere using Machine Learning
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  • Songyan Li,
  • Elena A. Kronberg,
  • Christopher G. Mouikis,
  • Hao Luo,
  • Yasong S Ge,
  • Aimin Du
Songyan Li
Institute of Geology and Geophysics, Chinese Academy of Sciences
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Elena A. Kronberg
Ludwig Maximilian University of Munich

Corresponding Author:kronberg@geophysik.uni-muenchen.de

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Christopher G. Mouikis
University of New Hampshire
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Hao Luo
Institute of Geology and Geophysics, Chinese Academy of Sciences
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Yasong S Ge
Institute of Geology and Geophysics
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Aimin Du
Institue of Geology and Geophysics, Chinese Academy of Sciences
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Abstract

The information on plasma pressures in the outer part of the inner magnetosphere is important for
simulations of the inner magnetosphere and the better understanding of its dynamics. Based on 17-year
observations from both CIS and RAPID instruments onboard the Cluster mission, we used machine-
learning-based models to predict proton plasma pressures at energies from ~40eV to 4MeV in the outer
part of the inner magnetosphere (L*=5-9). The location in the magnetosphere, and parameters of solar,
solar wind, and geomagnetic activity from the OMNI database are used as predictors. We trained several
different machine-learning-based models and compared their performances with observations. The
results demonstrate that the Extra-Trees Regressor has the best predicting performance. The Spearman
correlation between the observations and predictions by the model data is about 68%. The most
important parameter for predicting proton pressures in our model is the L* value, which is related to the
location. The most important predictor of solar and geomagnetic activity is the solar wind dynamic pressure. Based on the observations and predictions by our model, we find that no matter under quiet or disturbed geomagnetic conditions, both the dusk-dawn asymmetry at the dayside with higher pressures at the duskside and the day-night asymmetry with higher pressures at the nightside occur. Our results have direct practical applications, for instance, inputs for simulations of the inner magnetosphere or the reconstruction of the 3-D magnetospheric electric current system based on the magnetostatic equilibrium, and can also provide valuable guidance to the space weather forecast.