Synthetic downscaling of tropical cyclones (TCs) is critically important to estimate the long-term hazard of rare high-impact storm events. Existing downscaling approaches rely on statistical or statistical-deterministic models that are capable of generating large samples of synthetic storms with characteristics similar to observed storms. However, these models do not capture the complex two-way interactions between a storm and its environment. In addition, these approaches either necessitate a separate TC size model to simulate storm size or involve post-processing to introduce asymmetries in the simulated surface wind. In this study, we present an innovative data-driven approach for TC synthetic downscaling. Using a machine learning-based high-resolution global weather model (ML-GWM), our approach is able to simulate the full life cycle of a storm with asymmetric surface wind that accounts for the two-way interactions between the storm and its environment. This approach consists of multiple components: a data-driven model for generating synthetic TC seeds, a blending method that seamlessly integrate storm seeds into the surrounding while maintain the seed structure, and a recurrent neural network-based model for correcting the biases in maximum wind speed. Compared to observations and synthetic storms simulated using existing statistical-deterministic and statistical downscaling approaches, our method shows the ability to effectively capture many aspects of TC statistics, including track density, landfall frequency, landfall intensity, and outermost wind extent. Taking advantage of the computational efficiency of ML-GWM, our approach shows substantial potential for TC regional hazard and risk assessment.

A document by Noah S. Diffenbaugh. Click on the document to view its contents.

A document by Amina Ly. Click on the document to view its contents.

Improving predictions of decadal climate variability is critical for reducing uncertainty in near-term climate change. Here we investigate the potential to improve prediction skill in the North Pacific by identifying predictable patterns of sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in climate simulations, and then applying them to observations. A convolutional neural network (CNN) is first trained to predict basin-wide SSTs in the North Pacific on 1-5 year time-scales in nine global climate models (GCMs), and a pattern of high skill is identified from the GCM data. This pattern of high skill learned from GCMs is then skillfully predicted by the CNN when given observations as inputs. The identified pattern is notably not the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, and instead corresponds to basinwide warming and cooling focused in the North Pacific Gyre. We conclude that investigating the mechanisms that contribute to predictability (rather than variability) is an effective avenue for improving near-term climate predictions.

Despite increasing exposure to flooding and associated financial damages, estimates suggest more than two-thirds of flood-exposed properties are currently uninsured. This low adoption rate could undermine the climate resilience of communities and weaken the financial solvency of the United States National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP). We study whether repeated exposure to flood events, especially disaster-scale floods expected to become more frequent in a warming climate, could spur insurance adoption. Using improved estimates of residential insurance take-up in locations where such insurance is voluntary, and exploiting variation in the frequency and severity of flood events over time, we quantify how flood events impact local insurance demand. We find that a flood disaster declaration in a given year increases the take-up rate of insurance by 7% in the following year, but the effect diminishes in subsequent years and is gone after five years. This effect is more short-lived in counties in inland states that do not border the Gulf and Atlantic coasts. The effect of a flood on takeup is substantially larger if there was also a flood in the previous year. We also find that recent disasters are more salient for homeowners whose primary residences are exposed to a disaster declaration compared to non-primary residences. Our results provide a more comprehensive understanding of the salience effect of flooding on insurance demand compared to previous studies. Overall, these findings suggest that relying on households to self-adapt to increasing flood risks in a changing climate is insufficient for closing the insurance protection gap.

The scientific publishing landscape is evolving rapidly. This evolution is driven by a confluence of internal and external forces, including the growth of metrics-based evaluation of scientists; an increasing volume of manuscripts combined with expectations for rapid review and publication; an increasing number of journals, including for-profit Open Access publications; and the adoption of preprint servers across a growing range of disciplines. Many of these forces are contributing to personal anxiety and fatigue for authors, reviewers, and editors. Collectively, they are placing substantial stress on scientific publishing, which is a foundational pillar of the scientific enterprise. As editors of American Geophysical Union journals and books, we remain confident in the fundamental foundations of scientific publishing, but we are concerned about the impact of these increasing stressors. By affirming and investing in editorial values, respecting scientific integrity and credibility, and committing to accessibility, transparency, and accountability, we can fortify the foundations of the scientific enterprise during a time of rapid change.

Soil moisture influences near-surface air temperature by partitioning downwelling radiation into latent and sensible heat fluxes, through which dry soils generally lead to higher temperatures. The strength of this coupled soil moisture-temperature (SM-T) relationship is not spatially uniform, and numerous methods have been developed to assess SM-T coupling strength across the globe. These methods tend to involve either idealized climate-model experiments or linear statistical methods which cannot fully capture nonlinear SM-T coupling. In this study, we propose a nonlinear machine learning-based approach for analyzing SM-T coupling and apply this method to various mid-latitude regions using historical reanalysis datasets. We first train convolutional neural networks (CNNs) to predict daily maximum near-surface air temperature (TMAX) given daily SM and geopotential height fields. We then use partial dependence analysis to isolate the average sensitivity of each CNN’s TMAX prediction to the SM input under daily atmospheric conditions. The resulting SM-T relationships broadly agree with previous assessments of SM-T coupling strength. Over many regions, we find nonlinear relationships between the CNN’s TMAX prediction and the SM input map. These nonlinearities suggest that the coupled interactions governing SM-T relationships vary under different SM conditions, but these variations are regionally dependent. We also apply this method to test the influence of SM memory on SM-T coupling and find that our results are consistent with previous studies. Although our study focuses specifically on local SM-T coupling, our machine learning-based method can be extended to investigate other coupled interactions within the climate system using observed or model-derived datasets.

The monsoons in Pakistan have been exceptionally harsh in recent decades, resulting in extraordinary drought conditions and record flooding events. The changing frequency of extreme events is widely attributed to climate change. However, given this region's long history of floods and droughts, the role of natural climate variability cannot be rejected without a careful diagnosis. Here, we examine how oceanic and atmospheric variability has contributed to unusual precipitation distributions in West South Asia. Variations in sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific and northern Arabian Sea, and internal atmospheric variability related to the circumglobal teleconnection pattern and the subtropical westerly jet stream, explain more than 70% of monthly summer precipitation variability in the 21st century. Several of these forcings have co-occurred with record strength during episodes of extreme monsoons, which have exacerbated the overall effect. Climate change may have contributed to increased variability and the in-phase co-occurrences of the identified mechanisms, but further research is required to confirm any such connection.

Heat related illnesses are one of the leading causes of weather-related mortality in the United States, and heat extremes continue to increase in frequency and duration. Public health interventions include population mobility, including travel to central cooling centers or wellness checks on vulnerable populations. Using anonymized cellphone data from Safegraph’s neighborhood patterns dataset and gridded temperature data from gridMET, we explored the mobility-temperature relationship in the San Francisco Bay Area at fine spatial and temporal scale. We leveraged spatial variability in median income and temporal variability in COVID-19 related policies across two summers (2020-2021) to analyze their influence on the mobility-temperature relationship. We completed quantile regressions for a dataset stratified by income and year. We found that mobility increased at a higher rate with higher temperatures in 2020 than 2021. However, in 2021, the relationship reversed for several wealthier income groups, where mobility decreased with higher temperatures. We then augmented the analysis and calculated a panel regression with fixed effects to characterize the mobility-temperature relationship while controlling for temporal and spatial variability. This analysis suggested that all areas exhibited lower mobility with higher summer temperatures. However, similar to the results of the quantile regression, the rate of decrease in mobility in response to high temperature was significantly greater among the wealthiest census block groups compared with the least wealthy. Given the fundamental difference in the mobility response to temperature across income groups, our results are relevant for heat mitigation efforts in highly populated regions in current and future climate conditions.