loading page

Profiles of Operational and Research Forecasting of Smoke and Air Quality Around the World
  • +37
  • Susan M. O'Neill,
  • Peng Xian,
  • Johannes Flemming,
  • Martin Cope,
  • Alexander Baklanov,
  • Narasimhan K. Larkin,
  • Joseph K. Vaughan,
  • Daniel Tong,
  • Rosie Howard,
  • Roland Stull,
  • Didier Davignon,
  • Ravan Ahmadov,
  • M. Talat Odman,
  • John Innis,
  • Merched Azzi,
  • Christopher Gan,
  • Radenko Pavlovic,
  • Boon Ning Chew,
  • Jeffrey S. Reid,
  • Edward Hyer,
  • Zak Kipling,
  • Angela Benedetti,
  • Peter R. Colarco,
  • Arlindo Da Silva,
  • Taichu Tanaka,
  • Jeffrey McQueen,
  • Partha Bhattacharjee,
  • Jonathan Guth,
  • Nicole Asencio,
  • Oriol Jorba,
  • Carlos Perez Garcia-Pando,
  • Rostislav Kouznetsov,
  • Mikhail Sofiev,
  • Melissa E. Brooks,
  • Jack Chen,
  • Eric James,
  • Fabienne Reisen,
  • Alan Wain,
  • Kerryn McTaggart,
  • Angus MacNeil
Susan M. O'Neill
USDA Forest Service Pacific Northwest Research Station

Corresponding Author:susan.oneill1@usda.gov

Author Profile
Peng Xian
US Naval Research Laboratory, Marine Meteorology Division, Monterey, CA, USA
Author Profile
Johannes Flemming
European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, Reading, UK
Author Profile
Martin Cope
CSIRO Climate Science Centre, Aspendale, VIC, AUS
Author Profile
Alexander Baklanov
World Meteorological Organization, Geneva, CH
Author Profile
Narasimhan K. Larkin
USDA Forest Service Pacific Northwest Research Station
Author Profile
Joseph K. Vaughan
Washington State University
Author Profile
Daniel Tong
George Mason University, Fairfax, VA, USA
Author Profile
Rosie Howard
The University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, CAN
Author Profile
Roland Stull
The University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, CAN
Author Profile
Didier Davignon
Environment and Climate Change Canada
Author Profile
Ravan Ahmadov
CIRES, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO, USA
Author Profile
M. Talat Odman
Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA, USA
Author Profile
John Innis
EPA Tasmania, Hobart, TAS, AUS
Author Profile
Merched Azzi
New South Wales Department of Planning Industry and Environment, Sydney, NSW, AUS
Author Profile
Christopher Gan
Centre for Climate Research Singapore, Meteorological Service Singapore, SG
Author Profile
Radenko Pavlovic
Environment and Climate Change Canada, Dorval, QC, CAN
Author Profile
Boon Ning Chew
Centre for Climate Research Singapore, Meteorological Service Singapore, SG
Author Profile
Jeffrey S. Reid
US Naval Research Laboratory
Author Profile
Edward Hyer
US Naval Research Laboratory, Marine Meteorology Division, Monterey, CA, USA
Author Profile
Zak Kipling
European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, Reading, UK
Author Profile
Angela Benedetti
European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, Reading, UK
Author Profile
Peter R. Colarco
NASA Goddard Space Flight Center
Author Profile
Arlindo Da Silva
NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, USA
Author Profile
Taichu Tanaka
Meteorological Research Institute, Japan Meteorological Agency, Tsukuba, JP
Author Profile
Jeffrey McQueen
NOAA NCEP, College Park, MD, USA
Author Profile
Partha Bhattacharjee
I.M. Systems group at NWS/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD, USA
Author Profile
Jonathan Guth
Météo-France, UMR3589, Toulouse, FR
Author Profile
Nicole Asencio
Météo-France, UMR3589, Toulouse, FR
Author Profile
Oriol Jorba
Barcelona Supercomputing Center, Barcelona, ES
Author Profile
Carlos Perez Garcia-Pando
Barcelona Supercomputing Center, Barcelona, ES
Author Profile
Rostislav Kouznetsov
Finnish Meteorological Institute, Atmospheric Composition Unit, Helsinki, FI
Author Profile
Mikhail Sofiev
Finnish Meteorological Institute, Atmospheric Composition Unit, Helsinki, FI
Author Profile
Melissa E. Brooks
Met Office, Exeter, UK
Author Profile
Jack Chen
Environment and Climate Change Canada, Ottawa, ON, CAN
Author Profile
Eric James
CIRES, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO, USA
Author Profile
Fabienne Reisen
CSIRO Climate Science Centre, Aspendale, VIC, AUS
Author Profile
Alan Wain
Australian Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, VIC, AUS
Author Profile
Kerryn McTaggart
Victoria Department of Environment Land Water and Planning, Melbourne, VIC, AUS
Author Profile
Angus MacNeil
Forest Practices Authority, Hobart, TAS, AUS
Author Profile

Abstract

Biomass burning has shaped many of the ecosystems of the planet and for millennia humans have used it as a tool to manage the environment. When widespread fires occur, the health and daily lives of millions of people can be affected by the smoke, often at unhealthy to hazardous levels leading to a range of short-term and long-term health consequences such as respiratory issues, cardiovascular issues, and mortality. It is critical to adequately represent and include smoke and its consequences in atmospheric modeling systems to meet needs such as addressing the global climate carbon budget and informing and protecting the public during smoke episodes. Many scientific and technical challenges are associated with modeling the complex phenomenon of smoke. Variability in fire emissions estimates has an order of magnitude level of uncertainty, depending upon vegetation type, natural fuel heterogeneity, and fuel combustion processes. Quantifying fire emissions also vary from ground/vegetation-based methods to those based on remotely sensed fire radiative power data. These emission estimates are input into dispersion and air quality modeling systems, where their vertical allocation associated with plume rise, and temporal release parameterizations influence transport patterns, and, in turn affect chemical transformation and interaction with other sources. These processes lend another order of magnitude of variability to the downwind estimates of trace gases and aerosol concentrations. This chapter profiles many of the global and regional smoke prediction systems currently operational or quasi-operational in real time or near-real time. It is not an exhaustive list of systems, but rather is a profile of many of the systems in use to give examples of the creativity and complexity needed to simulate the phenomenon of smoke. This chapter, and the systems described, reflect the needs of different agencies and regions, where the various systems are tailored to the best available science to address challenges of a region. Smoke forecasting requirements range from warning and informing the public about potential smoke impacts to planning burn activities for hazard reduction or resource benefit. Different agencies also have different mandates, and the lines blur between the missions of quasi-operational organizations (e.g. research institutions) and agencies with operational mandates. The global smoke prediction systems are advanced, and many are self-organizing into a powerful ensemble, as discussed in section 2. Regional and national systems are being developed independently and are discussed in sections 3-5 for Europe (11 systems), North America (7 systems), and Australia (3 systems). Finally, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) effort (section 6) is bringing together global and regional systems and building the Vegetation Fire and Smoke Pollution Advisory and Assessment Systems (VFSP-WAS) to support countries with smoke issues and who lack resources.
13 Nov 2023Published in Landscape Fire, Smoke, and Health on pages 149-191. 10.1002/9781119757030.ch9