Exploring the dynamics of how coastal downwelling can lead to
landfalling hurricane intensification
Abstract
Our prior analysis of a coupled tropical cyclone (TC) air-sea model
(HWRF-B) revealed three cases in the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season
where coastal downwelling - developing ahead of a TC - contributed to
the intensification of each TC as it approached landfall. Coastal
downwelling is a specific oceanographic mechanism: we briefly consider
other mechanisms potentially contributing to this “shelf effect”,
including coastal trapped waves and near-surface advection. We then
present preliminary results from a further analysis of HWRF-B forecasts
from the 2017-2020 Atlantic and east Pacific hurricane seasons,
evaluating the prevalence of the shelf effect for TCs interacting with
continental and insular coasts in these two ocean basins. We explore
mechanisms linking shelf SST sustenance with inner core convective
development and storm intensification, using both a detailed energy
budget and Lagrangian tracking experiments within the boundary layers of
case study storms. Finally, we briefly discuss the implications these
findings hold for evaluating new coupled TC forecast modeling systems
currently being developed as a part of the Hurricane Forecast
Improvement Program (HFIP).