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Quantifying the influence of volcanic forcing on water isotopes and climate in polar and alpine regions using HadCM3
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  • Moritz Kirschner,
  • Max Holloway,
  • Louise Sime,
  • Kira Rehfeld
Moritz Kirschner
Ruprecht-Karls-Universität Heidelberg

Corresponding Author:moritz.kirschner@iup.uni-heidelberg.de

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Max Holloway
British Antarctic Survey
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Louise Sime
British Antarctic Survey
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Kira Rehfeld
Ruprecht-Karls-Universität Heidelberg
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Abstract

The frequency of extreme weather events depends relatively more on climate variability than on average changes. This makes variability a crucial element to consider in future projections. Stable water isotopes such as δ18O extracted from climate archives, including ice-cores, have been used to reconstruct regional climate and evaluate climate simulations. These archives have shown that variability in the Holocene is much lower than that at the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, 21 kyr ago). However, state-of-the-art climate models still fail to simulate this shift. Comparison is difficult, since paleoclimate equilibrium simulations are typically run for few centuries and do not yet incorporate water isotope tracers. Volcanic eruptions offer a unique testbed to analyse the link between regional archives and global climate since well reconstructed aerosol data from 800 CE onward allow the investigation of small and large-scale effects in time and space on the climate. Here, millenial simulations from the isotope-enabled version of HadCM3 forced by solar and volcanic reconstructions in pre-industrial, LGM and past-millenium scenarios were evaluated. We then analysed the influence of volcanic eruptions on climate and δ18O values in polar and alpine regions. This allowed us to test the dependency of isotope values on regional shifts in climatology as well as global anomalies using composite analysis of volcanic eruptions. We finally discuss the impact of these results on the climatic representation of polar and alpine ice-cores representing changes in global climate variability.