Abstract
The subseasonal Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) is among the most
important modes of tropical variability on the planet and is a dominant
driver of subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) prediction globally. The past
decade has seen substantial advances in MJO prediction using dynamical
forecast models, which now routinely outperform traditional statistical
MJO forecasts (e.g. multiple linear regression models). At the same
time, an increasing body of literature has demonstrated that
machine-learning methods represent a new frontier in Earth science,
opening the door to more advanced statistical forecast models of the
MJO. In this study, we explore whether state-of-the-art machine learning
methods can be used to make real-time MJO forecasts that outperform
traditional statistical models and do comparably well to dynamical
models. In particular, we utilize neural networks trained on
observational tropical fields to attempt to make skillful forecasts of
MJO convection out to several weeks lead time. Through contrasting the
machine-learning models’ behavior with simpler statistical models and
dynamical forecast models, we explore the advantages and disadvantages
of statistical versus dynamical forecasts. A novel aspect of our
analysis is the use of cutting-edge techniques to allow us to visualize
how our neural network models makes their predictions. These techniques,
such as layer-wise relevance propagation, can lead to new insights into
regions of MJO predictability, allowing us to better interpret sources
of MJO prediction skill within the machine-learning model. We further
diagnose whether our machine-learning models contain well-known aspects
of MJO prediction found in dynamical models, such as an increase in
prediction skill during boreal winter or during certain phases of the
stratospheric quasi-biennial oscillation.