Dynamical optimal water resource allocation under changing total water
use control index
Abstract
The system of total water use control index (TWUCI) has been established
in China since 2011. However, current TWUCI is static all year round,
making a poor adaptation to dynamic inflow and a deviation between water
plans and actuals. To this end, an innovative methodology, namely
“forecast-decision-implementation-renewal” (FDIR), is proposed to
carry out the real-time determination of the TWUCI. Streamflow
prediction is first used to determine adaptive TWUCI, and then the
optimal water allocation model considering both the TWUCI and ecological
demand is developed to make a decision-making of water supply system.
The updated information at next stage will be fed back to the model,
obtaining new water supply plan. By applying the method by scrolling
over periods, real-time decisions for water transfer and water release
could be derived. An application with the FDIR is successfully
implemented in the Fuhe River Basin of eastern Jiangxi Province, China.
The results show that the TWUCI in the remaining period
increases/decreases when the inflow scenario becomes drier/wetter. With
dynamic operating decisions, the water shortage ratio in the water-use
area declines by 3.8%~25.3% when inflow scenario(IS)
changes from wet to dry, while the actual water supply is reduced to the
TWUCI when dry IS turns to wet. In this way, The FDIR provides a dynamic
operating decision that guarantee the water consumption in the remaining
period always within the TWUCI, and realizes flexible management for
water use. It is expected to be useful for socio-water adaptation to
future climate changes towards a sustainable regional development.