Abstract
The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) mission
is to deliver high-quality global medium-range numerical weather
predictions and monitoring of the Earth system including hydrology and
water resources to its member states for decision making processes.
Challenges in this area include the integration of innovative
observations into the Earth system; realistic representations of water,
energy and carbon cycles; coupling and initialisation of all Earth
system components; adequate representation of uncertainties; and
supporting the development of user-specific products to enable optimal
decision-making under uncertainty. ECMWF is also the operational centre
of the European Union’s Copernicus Emergency Management Service (CEMS)
providing Global Flood and Fire forecasting systems issuing seasonal and
sub-seasonal forecasts. These forecasts, along with reanalysis and
reforecast data, are now openly available through the Copernicus Climate
Data Store allowing them to be input to other applications and used by
decision makers. These data and service enhancements open numerous
possibilities to improve integration with water decision-makings systems
and processes. However, ensuring these forecasts can be used for such
purposes is challenging due to the scale disconnect between a
continental or global forecast system and the local scale at which
decisions are made. Overcoming this challenge can be achieved by
co-designing and optimising the forecasting systems together with the
applications sector. This will allow to fully integrate Earth System and
impacts modelling in the forecasting systems, thereby enhancing
simulation realism. It will also to better tailor specific end products
to user requirements and facilitate an improved decision making. An
example is the TAMIR project which aims to connect flood forecasts to
end user decision making through an impact matrix. This matrix combines
flood hazard forecasts, derived by blending hourly radar based nowcasts
and medium-range numerical weather predictions, with locally relevant
exposure information regarding population and critical infrastructure.
Continuous end user engagement ensures that the design of the forecast
system remains relevant for their decision-making purposes. Another
example is the recently commenced I-CISK project, which will tailor
environmental forecast data to meet the requirements set out by end
users. This project aims to build upon the wealth of existing data and
services by incorporating local knowledge across multiple sectors,
timescales and hazards. Working with decision-makers at every step of
the project to co-design, co-create, co-implement and co-evaluate a
range of tailored climate services that are specific to user needs, will
help to provide information that is useful, useable, and used at the
local scale. This will include collaborating with users to design
effective forecast visualisations and undertaking user-driven evaluation
to answer specific questions users have about forecast performance.