A decadal climate shift in the southwest Indian Ocean linked to recent
malaria downturn in South Africa
Abstract
Malaria poses a great challenge for the maintenance of good public
health and sustenance of human wellbeing in many parts of the world.
Apparently, the anthropogenic global warming has expanded the
spatio-temporal extent of the disease; incidences are now reported
beyond tropics and in non-endemic seasons. This emerging trend of
climate change has increased the malaria risk factor for millions more
across the globe. While global warming remains a key factor to address
the future adaptations and mitigation measures, the existing association
between climate and malaria prevalence needs careful observations and
analyses besides the non-climatic factors. Such a climate association is
investigated here with the available malaria case counts in the
northeastern districts of South Africa. It is found that the regional
variations in seasonal rainfall and temperature, that primarily control
mosquito population and thereby infection rates, are linked with a
basin-scale climate phenomenon manifested as a dipole pattern in the
interannual anomalies of sea surface temperature (SST) of southwestern
Indian Ocean. In addition to the year-to-year variations, partly related
to the basin warming, a decadal shift in the SST dipole pattern, and
associated decrease in seasonal rainfall, leads to decreasing number of
case counts in recent years as indicated by the malaria records.