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Using an Emergency Medicine Mindset to Guide Climate Action: Lessons from the COVID
  • William Calvin
William Calvin
Univ Washington

Corresponding Author:wcalvin@uw.edu

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Abstract

The 1,000-fold differences between countries in bringing the 2020 pandemic under control show the consequences of failures to stockpile, a century-old anti-science, anti-expertise streak in American culture, and of tolerating incompetent leadership. The extreme weather in the last twenty years has featured surges in severe windstorms (now 7x as common as before 2008), inland floods, mega heatwaves, hot-dry-windy “fire weather,” and stalled hurricanes. They threaten a human population crash via famine and genocides. Here I adapt the physician’s mental check list to show what a “climate doctor” would consider. First, sensible precautions: beefing up infra­structure to resist floods, burying power lines and creating city-wide battery backup, and relocating people out of flood plains and coastlines. Stockpile. We need economic modeling for emergency measures, what we should have done before the pandemic’s recession. Protect the patient from the usual causes of terminal downhill slides. This is commonly called “stabilizing the patient.” The Civilian Conservation Corps in the 1930s likely prevented civil disorder. Recognize what’s wrong. For climate, the working diagnosis since 1965 is a global-scale overheating caused by the accumulation of CO2, contributed by the annual emissions of fossil fuels. Attacking the root cause may not be fast enough. To evaluate urgency, guess where things are likely headed (prognosis). Climate models are good for estimating slow climate change, but they are only beginning to address the dynamic aspects that can create climate flips and extreme weather. Rule out other problems. Repeatedly search for secondary climate problems, analogous to shock and internal bleeding, that could provoke a fast track to disaster. Formulate a plan of action and explain it to get consent. The annual bump-up in CO2 from emissions is now 50% greater than before 2000. We must now focus on a quick cleanup of the existing CO2 accumulation, as in using a kidney dialysis machine to quickly clean up an aspirin overdose. Gradual overheating is no longer the correct focus for under­standing the risk we now face. We are in the territory where fast tracks to disaster must be forestalled. Something, perhaps the passive drama mindset for the surreal, is preventing effective climate action, even by the knowledge­able.