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Assessment of climate change impacts on semi-arid watersheds in Peru
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  • Fariborz Daneshvar,
  • Indrajeet Chaubey,
  • Laura Bowling,
  • Keith Cherkauer,
  • Andre Geraldo de Lima Moraes,
  • Jose Alfredo Herrera Quispe
Fariborz Daneshvar
Purdue University

Corresponding Author:fdaneshv@purdue.edu

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Indrajeet Chaubey
Purdue University
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Laura Bowling
Purdue University
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Keith Cherkauer
Purdue University
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Andre Geraldo de Lima Moraes
Purdue University
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Jose Alfredo Herrera Quispe
National University of Saint Augustine
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Abstract

Low seasonal precipitation and high demand for water use for agriculture, mining, industry, power generation and human consumption have made water resources management a concern in the Arequipa Region of Peru, which may be worse under future climate projections. In this study, the hydrologic response to climate change is evaluated within the Quilca-Vitor-Chili River Basin in the Arequipa Region of Peru. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is used to develop a watershed model based on topographical, land cover, soil, and climatic (precipitation and temperature) data, while taking into account anthropogenic inter-basin transfers. The model is calibrated and validated for current conditions. Three climate scenarios derived from Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Model (AOGCM) simulations for both Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5 are obtained from the NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX-GDDP) dataset. Surface runoff and water yield associated with future climate scenarios are calculated for two near (2010-2039) and far (2040-2069) futures. Results of this study will provide a guideline for developing water policy in the region in order to mitigate negative impacts of climate variations in the region.