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The Influence of Climate Change on Vibriosis in the United States: Projected Health and Economic Impacts for the 21st Century
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  • Michael Kolian,
  • Megan Sheahan,
  • Caitlin Gould,
  • James Neumann,
  • Patrick Kinney,
  • Sandra Hoffmann,
  • Charles Fant,
  • Selina Wang
Michael Kolian
Environmental Protection Agency Washington DC

Corresponding Author:kolian.michael@epa.gov

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Megan Sheahan
Industrial Economics, Inc.
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Caitlin Gould
Environmental Protection Agency Washington DC
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James Neumann
Industrial Economics, Inc.
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Patrick Kinney
Boston University
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Sandra Hoffmann
US Department of Agriculture Economic Research Service
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Charles Fant
Industrial Economics, Inc.
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Selina Wang
Tufts University
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Abstract

This paper represents the first national-level (United States) estimate of the economic impacts of vibriosis cases as exacerbated by climate change. Vibriosis is an illness contracted through foodborne and waterborne exposures to various Vibrio species (e.g., non-V. cholerae O1 and O139 serotypes) found in estuarine and marine environments, including within aquatic life such as shellfish and finfish. Objectives The objective of this study was to project climate-induced changes in vibriosis related to sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and associated economic impacts in the U.S. Methods Our analysis constructed three logistic regression models by Vibrio species, using vibriosis data sourced from the Cholera and Other Vibrio Illness Surveillance (COVIS) system and using historical SSTs. We relied on previous estimates of the cost-per-case of vibriosis to estimate future total annual medical costs, lost income from productivity loss, and mortality-related indirect costs throughout the U.S. We separately report results for V. parahaemolyticus, V. vulnificus, V. alginolyticus, and “V. spp” given the different associated health burden of each. Results By 2090, increases in SST are estimated to result in a 51 percent increase in cases annually relative to the baseline era (1995) under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and a 108 percent increase under RCP8.5. The cost of these illnesses is projected to reach over $5.2 billion annually under RCP4.5 and $7.3 billion annually under RCP8.5, relative to $2.2 billion in the baseline (2018 dollars), equivalent to 140 percent and 234 percent increases respectively. Discussion Vibriosis incidence is likely to increase in the U.S. under moderate and unmitigated climate change scenarios through increases in SST, resulting in a substantial burden of morbidity and mortality, and costing millions of dollars. These costs are mostly attributable to deaths, primarily from exposure to V. vulnificus. Evidence suggests that other factors, including sea surface salinity, may contribute to further increases in vibriosis cases in some regions of the U.S. and should be investigated.