Mesoscale Convective Systems over the rainiest spot on Earth: OTREC
field campaign and Cloud-Resolving Simulations
Abstract
This research study shows the ability of cloud resolving models (CRM) to
simulate Mesoscale Convective Systems (MCS) over the far Eastern Pacific
region, off the coast of Colombia and Panama. The simulation period
coincides with the newly developed OTREC field campaign
(August-September, 2019), which provided enhanced upper-air soundings,
NSF/NCAR G-V dropsonde and HIAPER Cloud Radar data to help evaluate the
model and diagnose the environmental conditions favoring MCS
development. We tested the model sensitivity to three different
microphysics schemes: two popular bulk schemes (Thomson and Morrison)
and one spectral bin (SBM) scheme. The models are diagnosed on their
ability to simulate the observed large-scale and mesoscale environments
associated with MCSs development, including the ChocoJet and Caribbean
low-level jets, the semi-permanent Panama low, vertical shear, and
mid-level diurnal gravity waves. We also examined the vertical
distribution of hydrometeors concentrations and diabatic heat and
cooling profiles. Results show that not only the SBM represents better
the spatial and vertical distribution of precipitation, but also
simulates better MCSs characteristics (intensity, duration,
organization) and their predominant westward movement. We hypothesize
that the success of the SBM in producing better organized and more
long-lasting MCS stands in the stronger diabatic heating, related to a
top-heavier mass profile that helps support upper-level convergence, and
more intense low-level diabatic cooling that helps support stronger
gravity currents. OTREC observations and CRM results shed light on the
role of MCSs in the generation of enhanced mid-level mesoscale
vorticity, which has been related to generation of easterly waves or
enhancement of existing ones. Although the SBM is unpractical due to its
computation cost (fast version takes about 10-12 times longer), it
represents an important step forward in cloud modeling, with suggestive
results indicating that SBM improves confidence of the physical basis of
the elusive and challenging simulation of realistic tropical MCSs.